Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 23, 7:00 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Celtics
CHA	This season	BOS
3-4	Record	5-1
3-4	ATS	3-3
1-6	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 112–101 · win probability BOS 80%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 212.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

CHA 2, BOS 6 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

CHA offense vs BOS defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, BOS 17.8%

BOSBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 50.8% and 45.9% of their shots

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, BOS 68.4%

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

CHABig

BOS offense vs CHA defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, BOS 32.3. Allowed: CHA 28.4, BOS 31.7

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: CHA away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 25	vs ORL	L90–121LU
Jan 27	@ SA	L102–115LU
Jan 29	@ MIN	W122–108WO

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 25	vs TOR	W115–101WU
Jan 27	vs LAC	W146–115WO
Jan 29	vs PHX	W120–112LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

CHA 3–15 BOSBOS leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 2 meetings · CHA 7-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 7, 2025-26	CHA 102 @ BOS 113	BOS -4.5	BOS W
Mar 29, 2025-26	BOS 114 @ CHA 99	CHA -2.5	BOS W
Mar 4, 2025-26	CHA 118 @ BOS 89	BOS -6.5	CHA W
Apr 13, 2024-25	CHA 86 @ BOS 93	BOS -10.5	CHA W
Apr 11, 2024-25	CHA 94 @ BOS 130	BOS -21.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 0, Celtics 3, even 2

HornetsBetterCeltics

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

BOSBig

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

Even

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

BOSSmall

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

Even

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

BOSBig

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

HornetsBetterCeltics

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

BOSBig

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHASmall

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

BOS4.0 #25

CHA		BOS
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	118.7 #8
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.15 #6
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
29.6 #28	3-point %	35.5 #10
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
21.6 #30	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
7.1 #25	Steals per game	9.2 #9
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Celtics