Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 23, 6:00 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Nets
TOR	This season	BKN
3-3	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 117–106 · win probability TOR 78%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

TOR 5, BKN 3 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

BKN offense vs TOR defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, BKN 15.9%

TORSmall

TOR offense vs BKN defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

BKNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, BKN 32.9. Allowed: TOR 41.5, BKN 33.5

TORSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

BKNSmall

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 38.1% and 48.0% of their shots

TORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, BKN 77.8%

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: TOR away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 25	@ BOS	L101–115LU
Jan 27	vs DAL	W122–92WU
Jan 29	vs CLE	L102–114LO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 25	vs MIA	L110–126LO
Jan 27	vs PHX	L102–106WU
Jan 29	vs LAC	L89–126LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

TOR 9–11 BKNBKN leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · TOR 9-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 12, 2025-26	BKN 101 @ TOR 136	TOR -23.5	TOR W
Dec 21, 2025-26	TOR 81 @ BKN 96	BKN +3.5	BKN W
Nov 23, 2025-26	BKN 109 @ TOR 119	TOR -11.5	BKN W
Nov 11, 2025-26	TOR 119 @ BKN 109	BKN +9.5	TOR W
Apr 6, 2024-25	TOR 120 @ BKN 109	BKN +2.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 3, Nets 0, even 2

RaptorsBetterNets

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

Even

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

TORBig

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

TORSmall

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

Even

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

TORBig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

RaptorsBetterNets

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

TORSmall

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORBig

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

BKN4.7 #17

TOR		BKN
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.03 #29
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
32.0 #24	3-point %	35.1 #15
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
29.2 #2	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
12.7 #2	Steals per game	9.0 #14
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Nets

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Nets

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Nets