Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 23, 5:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Bulls
PHI	This season	CHI
6-1	Record	1-5
4-3	ATS	3-3
2-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 120–112 · win probability PHI 70%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

PHI 4, CHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, CHI 14.7%

PHIBig

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 39.5% and 47.9% of their shots

PHIBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

CHIBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, CHI 69.8%

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

PHISmall

PHI offense vs CHI defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, PHI 3-0 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

CHI offense vs PHI defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, CHI 38.3. Allowed: PHI 28.5, CHI 33.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: PHI away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 25	vs LAC	W128–113WO
Jan 27	vs SAC	W139–118WO
Jan 28	@ NO	L111–126LO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 25	vs DAL	L128–149LO
Jan 26	@ IND	L126–145LO
Jan 28	@ ORL	L103–127LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

PHI 10–8 CHIPHI leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · PHI 11-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 25, 2025-26	CHI 137 @ PHI 157	PHI -6.5	PHI W
Dec 26, 2025-26	PHI 102 @ CHI 109	CHI +1.5	CHI W
Nov 4, 2025-26	PHI 111 @ CHI 113	CHI -2.5	PHI W
Apr 13, 2024-25	CHI 122 @ PHI 102	PHI +7.5	CHI W
Feb 24, 2024-25	CHI 142 @ PHI 110	PHI -5.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 3, Bulls 0, even 2

76ersBetterBulls

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

Even

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

Even

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHIBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

PHIBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHIBig

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

76ersBetterBulls

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

PHISmall

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

Even

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

CHIBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

CHI5.0 #12

PHI		CHI
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.04 #26
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
34.0 #20	3-point %	28.1 #30
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
25.1 #22	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
9.6 #7	Steals per game	8.7 #17
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Bulls

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Bulls

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Bulls