Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 25, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Hornets
ORL	This season	CHA
2-4	Record	3-4
2-4	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 109–108 · win probability CHA 52%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 217.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

ORL 4, CHA 3 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, CHA 76.6%

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHABig

ORL offense vs CHA defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

ORLBig

CHA offense vs ORL defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

ORLBig

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 46.5% and 50.8% of their shots

ORLSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, CHA 18.9. Allowed: ORL 29.8, CHA 28.4

ORLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, CHA 14.5%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: ORL away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 28	vs CHI	W127–103WU
Jan 29	@ HOU	L108–113LO
Jan 31	vs BKN	W118–98WO

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 27	@ SA	L102–115LU
Jan 29	@ MIN	W122–108WO
Jan 31	vs LAL	W135–117WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

ORL 13–8 CHAORL leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · ORL 14-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 17, 2025-26	CHA 90 @ ORL 121	ORL +2.5	ORL W
Mar 19, 2025-26	ORL 111 @ CHA 130	CHA -5.5	CHA W
Jan 22, 2025-26	CHA 124 @ ORL 97	ORL -3.5	CHA W
Dec 26, 2025-26	CHA 120 @ ORL 105	ORL -5.5	CHA W
Oct 30, 2025-26	ORL 123 @ CHA 107	CHA +3.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Magic 2, Hornets 2, even 1

MagicBetterHornets

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

ORLBig

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

CHABig

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

ORLSmall

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

CHASmall

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

Even

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

MagicBetterHornets

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

CHABig

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

ORLBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

CHASmall

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

CHA5.0 #15

ORL		CHA
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.07 #21	Points per possession	0.99 #30
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
35.4 #11	3-point %	29.6 #28
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
26.3 #16	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
7.0 #26	Steals per game	7.1 #25
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Hornets

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Hornets

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Hornets