Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 23, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Nuggets
MIL	This season	DEN
1-5	Record	3-2
2-4	ATS	2-3
5-1	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 124–111 · win probability DEN 82%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

MIL 1, DEN 7 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs MIL defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, DEN 31.3. Allowed: MIL 29.7, DEN 21.5

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, DEN 70.5%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

DENSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, DEN 15.9%

DENSmall

MIL offense vs DEN defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

DENSmall

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 45.9% and 40.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: MIL away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 26	@ UTAH	L96–128LU
Jan 28	vs MIA	L105–112LU
Jan 30	vs ATL	L99–122LU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 25	vs SAC	W136–105WO
Jan 27	@ MIN	L98–110
Jan 30	@ OKC	L84–96LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIL 4–6 DENDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 3 meetings · MIL 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 23, 2025-26	DEN 102 @ MIL 100	MIL -8.5	DEN W
Jan 11, 2025-26	MIL 104 @ DEN 108	DEN +6.5	DEN W
Mar 26, 2024-25	MIL 117 @ DEN 127	DEN -11.5	MIL W
Feb 27, 2024-25	DEN 112 @ MIL 121	MIL +3.5	MIL W
Feb 12, 2023-24	DEN 95 @ MIL 112	MIL -1.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 0, Nuggets 5, even 0

BucksBetterNuggets

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

DENSmall

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

DENBig

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

DENSmall

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

DENBig

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

DENSmall

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

BucksBetterNuggets

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

DENSmall

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

DENBig

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

DEN4.4 #18

MIL		DEN
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.13 #9
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
33.9 #21	3-point %	37.4 #7
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
26.0 #20	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
5.7 #30	Steals per game	10.2 #5
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Nuggets