Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 24, 4:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Lakers
WSH	This season	LAL
3-3	Record	5-2
3-3	ATS	4-3
1-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 122–112 · win probability LAL 77%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

WSH 1, LAL 4 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs WSH defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALSmall

WSH offense vs LAL defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

WSHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, LAL 37.2. Allowed: WSH 21.8, LAL 30.7

LALSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, LAL 67.4%

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 37.6% and 45.7% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, LAL 17.8%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: WSH away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 26	@ POR	L88–123LU
Jan 28	vs SAC	W116–112WO
Jan 30	@ IND	W131–118WO

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 26	vs OKC	L110–115WO
Jan 28	@ IND	W137–130LO
Jan 30	@ NY	W110–97WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

WSH 1–9 LALLAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 8 meetings · WSH 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 30, 2025-26	WSH 101 @ LAL 120	LAL -15.5	LAL W
Jan 30, 2025-26	LAL 142 @ WSH 111	WSH +10.5	LAL W
Jan 30, 2024-25	LAL 134 @ WSH 96	WSH +8.5	LAL W
Jan 21, 2024-25	WSH 88 @ LAL 111	LAL -13.5	LAL W
Apr 3, 2023-24	LAL 125 @ WSH 120	WSH +12.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 1, Lakers 3, even 1

WizardsBetterLakers

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

LALBig

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

LALBig

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHBig

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

LALSmall

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

WizardsBetterLakers

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

LALSmall

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

LALBig

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

LAL6.7 #3

WSH		LAL
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.18 #2
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
29.3 #29	3-point %	38.9 #4
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
24.5 #24	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
7.2 #24	Steals per game	10.4 #4
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Lakers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Lakers