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NBA · Sun, Jan 24

Timberwolves @ Pistons

Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons
#2MINTimberwolves
@
#4DETPistons
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MINThis seasonDET
4-3Record5-1
6-1ATS5-1
4-3O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 112–111 · win probability MIN 51%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 222.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 3, DET 2 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MINSmall
DET offense vs MIN defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
MINSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, DET 72.8%
DETSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, DET 28.9. Allowed: MIN 28.9, DET 28.1
DETSmall
Home court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, MIN 2-2 away
MINSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
Even
Three-pointers
MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 42.8% and 43.3% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, DET 15.6%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, DET 17.1%
Even
MIN offense vs DET defense
Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Recent form
Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIN -0.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model222.8
Model edge—
Projected score
MIN 111.5 · DET 111.3
Win probability
MIN 51%
1st half
Spread
MIN -0.3
Total
111.8
Projected score
MIN 56 · DET 55.7
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 2, Pistons 0, even 3
TimberwolvesBetterPistons
G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42
Even
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91
Even
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96
MINSmall
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
Even
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98
MINBig
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
TimberwolvesBetterPistons
MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7
Even
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6
MINSmall
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players
MINSmall
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players
MINBig
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIN betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Timberwolves
Guards
A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min
Forwards
J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min
Centers
R. Gobert30 min
Out
A. EdwardsOut
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MINDET
Scoring
120.0 #6Points per game109.8 #21
1.13 #8Points per possession1.09 #18
105.4 #9Pace (possessions)100.9 #29
Shooting
55.8 #6Effective FG%53.1 #17
37.6 #63-point %36.3 #9
42.8 #163-point attempt rate43.3 #13
26.1 #21Free throw rate28.9 #14
Possessions
15.1 #12Turnover rate15.6 #17
30.0 #7Offensive rebound rate27.2 #17
27.3 #11Assists per game26.7 #15
Defense
108.7 #8Points allowed101.8 #1
1.04 #4Points allowed per possession1.01 #1
50.5 #5Opponent effective FG%48.8 #2
31.2 #6Opponent 3-point %32.5 #10
15.6 #17Turnovers forced17.1 #6
75.4 #8Defensive rebound rate72.8 #15
9.0 #13Steals per game9.0 #12
4.3 #20Blocks per game6.7 #4
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Spurs111–121
  • Wvs Clippers127–101
  • Lvs Warriors114–119
  • L@ Cavaliers125–127
  • Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.