1. Home
  2. NBA
  3. Sun, Jan 24
  4. HOU @ ORL
NBA · Sun, Jan 24

Rockets @ Magic

Kia Center · at Magic
#1HOURockets
@
#19ORLMagic
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
HOUThis seasonORL
6-1Record2-4
6-1ATS2-4
5-2O/U3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 116–109 · win probability HOU 69%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 224.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 8, ORL 1 · 2026-27 so far
HOUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, ORL 68.9%
HOUBig
ORL offense vs HOU defense
Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less
HOUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, ORL 13.6%
HOUBig
HOU offense vs ORL defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
HOUSmall
Three-pointers
HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 38.1% and 46.5% of their shots
HOUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0
HOUSmall
Recent form
Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4
HOUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, ORL 31.7. Allowed: HOU 24.7, ORL 29.8
ORLSmall
Home court
ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, HOU 3-1 away
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -6.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model224.5
Model edge—
Projected score
HOU 115.7 · ORL 108.9
Win probability
HOU 69%
1st half
Spread
HOU -4.0
Total
112.6
Projected score
HOU 58.3 · ORL 54.3
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 3, Magic 0, even 2
RocketsBetterMagic
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60
Even
G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94
HOUBig
G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79
Even
F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82
HOUBig
F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84
HOUBig
C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28
RocketsBetterMagic
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
HOUSmall
ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
HOUBig
ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
HOUBig
Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
HOUBig
Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
HOUBig
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestHOU betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Rockets
Guards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
Magic
Guards
D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min
Forwards
F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min
Centers
W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min
Out
J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HOUORL
Scoring
120.7 #3Points per game107.7 #26
1.20 #1Points per possession1.07 #21
101.6 #24Pace (possessions)101.9 #22
Shooting
56.6 #3Effective FG%53.4 #15
39.0 #33-point %35.4 #11
38.1 #263-point attempt rate46.5 #6
31.9 #8Free throw rate31.7 #9
Possessions
15.1 #13Turnover rate17.0 #24
32.4 #3Offensive rebound rate23.4 #26
28.1 #5Assists per game26.3 #16
Defense
108.3 #7Points allowed116.7 #22
1.06 #8Points allowed per possession1.13 #24
52.1 #10Opponent effective FG%53.0 #13
30.2 #4Opponent 3-point %34.6 #13
15.7 #16Turnovers forced13.6 #26
73.2 #14Defensive rebound rate68.9 #26
9.7 #6Steals per game7.0 #26
5.9 #8Blocks per game4.2 #23
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Thunder119–98
  • L@ Mavericks111–116
  • W@ Bucks132–100
  • Wvs Hawks120–110
  • W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Celtics97–108
  • W@ Raptors121–114
  • L@ Raptors99–129
  • W@ Knicks111–102
  • Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.