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NBA · Tue, Jan 26

Rockets @ Spurs

Frost Bank Center · at Spurs · Conference game
#1HOURockets
@
#3SASpurs
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
HOUThis seasonSA
6-1Record4-2
6-1ATS2-4
5-2O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 114–111 · win probability SA 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 224.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 4, SA 2 · 2026-27 so far
HOUBig
Three-pointers
HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 38.1% and 39.0% of their shots
HOUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
SASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, SA 13.1%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, SA 15.7%
HOUSmall
Recent form
Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
HOUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, SA 24.5. Allowed: HOU 24.7, SA 21.7
SASmall
Home court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, HOU 3-1 away
Context
Schedule so far
HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, SA 75.8%
Even
HOU offense vs SA defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Even
SA offense vs HOU defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -2.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model224.1
Model edge—
Projected score
HOU 110.6 · SA 113.5
Win probability
SA 58%
1st half
Spread
SA -1.4
Total
112.4
Projected score
HOU 55.5 · SA 56.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Rockets 1, Spurs 1, even 3
RocketsBetterSpurs
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60
SABig
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94
HOUBig
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79
Even
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82
Even
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84
Even
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98
RocketsBetterSpurs
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
Even
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
Even
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
HOUBig
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestHOU betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Rockets
Guards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
Spurs
Guards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HOUSA
Scoring
120.7 #3Points per game117.3 #12
1.20 #1Points per possession1.12 #10
101.6 #24Pace (possessions)104.3 #11
Shooting
56.6 #3Effective FG%53.3 #16
39.0 #33-point %34.9 #17
38.1 #263-point attempt rate39.0 #24
31.9 #8Free throw rate24.5 #24
Possessions
15.1 #13Turnover rate13.1 #2
32.4 #3Offensive rebound rate27.2 #16
28.1 #5Assists per game27.5 #9
Defense
108.3 #7Points allowed110.2 #12
1.06 #8Points allowed per possession1.06 #6
52.1 #10Opponent effective FG%52.1 #11
30.2 #4Opponent 3-point %37.3 #23
15.7 #16Turnovers forced15.7 #14
73.2 #14Defensive rebound rate75.8 #7
9.7 #6Steals per game9.2 #10
5.9 #8Blocks per game7.0 #1
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Thunder119–98
  • L@ Mavericks111–116
  • W@ Bucks132–100
  • Wvs Hawks120–110
  • W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Timberwolves121–111
  • W@ Jazz117–111
  • Wvs Kings130–103
  • W@ Mavericks122–106
  • Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.