Chase Center · at Warriors · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 LAL | This season | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 4-3 | ATS | 5-2 |
| 4-3 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects GS 118–118 · win probability GS 50%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 235.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: GS has more of the edges
LAL 2, GS 5 · 2026-27 so far
GSBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, GS 70.4%
LALBigLAL offense vs GS defense
Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSSmallGS offense vs LAL defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
LALSmallShooting
Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0
GSSmallRecent form
Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0
GSSmallHome court
GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, LAL 2-1 away
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
GSSmallThree-pointers
LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 45.7% and 47.1% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, GS 16.7%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, GS 17.6%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, GS 28.8. Allowed: LAL 30.7, GS 27.3
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelGS -0.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model235.4
Model edge—
Projected score
LAL 117.6 · GS 117.8
Win probability
GS 50%
1st half
Spread
LAL -0.1
Total
117.7
Projected score
LAL 58.9 · GS 58.8
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LALlast 7 | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% | 4-3 57% |
| GSlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 28 since 2021-22
LAL 16–12 GSLAL leads · 28 games since 2021-22 · LAL 17-11 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026-27 | LAL 95 @ GS 112 | GS +2.5 | GS W |
| Oct 21, 2026-27 | GS 105 @ LAL 127 | LAL -6.5 | LAL W |
| Apr 9, 2025-26 | LAL 119 @ GS 103 | GS -1.5 | LAL W |
| Feb 28, 2025-26 | LAL 129 @ GS 101 | GS +3.5 | LAL W |
| Feb 7, 2025-26 | GS 99 @ LAL 105 | LAL -1.5 | LAL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Lakers
7 games played
Straight up
5-2
71% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | vsGS | W 127-105 | -6.5 | W +15.5 | 233.5 | U 232 |
| Oct 23 | vs LAC | W 125-117 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 225.5 | O 242 |
| Oct 25 | @ UTAH | W 132-123 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 237.5 | O 255 |
| Oct 27 | vs POR | L 129-136 | -1.5 | L −8.5 | 234.5 | O 265 |
| Oct 28 | @LAC | W 103-87 | +1.5 | W +17.5 | 224.5 | U 190 |
| Oct 30 | @GS | L 95-112 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 234.5 | U 207 |
| Nov 1 | vs TOR | W 131-125 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 224.5 | O 256 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsGS
GSW 127-105
+15.5
23
vsLAC
LACW 125-117
−0.5
25
@UTAH
UTAHW 132-123
+2.5
27
vsPOR
PORL 129-136
−8.5
28
@LAC
LACW 103-87
+17.5
30
@GS
GSL 95-112
−19.5
1
vsTOR
TORW 131-125
+2.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsGS
GSW 127-105
−1.5
23
vsLAC
LACW 125-117
+16.5
25
@UTAH
UTAHW 132-123
+17.5
27
vsPOR
PORL 129-136
+30.5
28
@LAC
LACW 103-87
−34.5
30
@GS
GSL 95-112
−27.5
1
vsTOR
TORW 131-125
+31.5
over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Warriors
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @LAL | L 105-127 | +6.5 | L −15.5 | 233.5 | U 232 |
| Oct 23 | vs MEM | L 108-111 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 236.5 | U 219 |
| Oct 24 | @ PHX | L 122-131 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 221.5 | O 253 |
| Oct 26 | @ DEN | W 134-114 | +6.5 | W +26.5 | 236.5 | O 248 |
| Oct 28 | @ MIN | W 119-114 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 227.5 | O 233 |
| Oct 30 | vsLAL | W 112-95 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 234.5 | U 207 |
| Nov 1 | vsLAC | W 124-112 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 220.5 | O 236 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−15.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−7.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+0.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+26.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+8.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
+19.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−1.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−17.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+31.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+11.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+5.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
−27.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+15.5
over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Lakers has the better starters
Position by position: Lakers 2, Warriors 1, even 2
LakersBetterWarriors
G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast
Score 82
=Even
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 72
G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast
Score 79
←LALSmall
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 62
G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 50
←LALBig
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 5
F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 70
=Even
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 78
C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 42
→GSSmall
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 72
LakersBetterWarriors
LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2
←LALSmall
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2
→GSSmall
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players
←LALBig
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players
→GSBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
Bench+6.7 · 5 players
←LALSmall
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLAL betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
LakersGuards
A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min
Forwards
J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew
Centers
W. Kessler31 min
Out
Z. WilliamsOut
WarriorsGuards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
LAL120.3 #5GS117.7 #11Points per possession
LAL1.18 #2GS1.17 #3Pace (possessions)
LAL102.9 #17GS101.4 #25Shooting
Effective FG%
LAL60.1 #1GS55.3 #83-point %
LAL38.9 #4GS40.0 #23-point attempt rate
LAL45.7 #9GS47.1 #5Free throw rate
LAL37.2 #2GS28.8 #15Possessions
Turnover rate
LAL18.3 #28GS16.7 #22Offensive rebound rate
LAL26.8 #19GS33.2 #1Assists per game
LAL23.4 #27GS27.4 #10Defense
Points allowed
LAL115.0 #17GS114.9 #16Points allowed per possession
LAL1.11 #19GS1.13 #21Opponent effective FG%
LAL53.7 #17GS56.0 #25Opponent 3-point %
LAL36.7 #22GS35.2 #16Turnovers forced
LAL17.8 #4GS17.6 #5Defensive rebound rate
LAL67.4 #29GS70.4 #23Steals per game
LAL10.4 #4GS9.1 #11Blocks per game
LAL6.7 #3GS4.1 #24| LAL | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 120.3 #5 | Points per game | 117.7 #11 |
| 1.18 #2 | Points per possession | 1.17 #3 |
| 102.9 #17 | Pace (possessions) | 101.4 #25 |
| Shooting | ||
| 60.1 #1 | Effective FG% | 55.3 #8 |
| 38.9 #4 | 3-point % | 40.0 #2 |
| 45.7 #9 | 3-point attempt rate | 47.1 #5 |
| 37.2 #2 | Free throw rate | 28.8 #15 |
| Possessions | ||
| 18.3 #28 | Turnover rate | 16.7 #22 |
| 26.8 #19 | Offensive rebound rate | 33.2 #1 |
| 23.4 #27 | Assists per game | 27.4 #10 |
| Defense | ||
| 115.0 #17 | Points allowed | 114.9 #16 |
| 1.11 #19 | Points allowed per possession | 1.13 #21 |
| 53.7 #17 | Opponent effective FG% | 56.0 #25 |
| 36.7 #22 | Opponent 3-point % | 35.2 #16 |
| 17.8 #4 | Turnovers forced | 17.6 #5 |
| 67.4 #29 | Defensive rebound rate | 70.4 #23 |
| 10.4 #4 | Steals per game | 9.1 #11 |
| 6.7 #3 | Blocks per game | 4.1 #24 |
Lakers
5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Raptors131–125
- L@ Warriors95–112
- W@ Clippers103–87
- Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
- W@ Jazz132–123
A week or more of rest.
Warriors
4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Clippers124–112
- Wvs Lakers112–95
- W@ Timberwolves119–114
- W@ Nuggets134–114
- L@ Suns122–131
A week or more of rest.