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NBA · Fri, Jan 22

Bucks @ Warriors

Chase Center · at Warriors
#29MILBucks
@
#13GSWarriors
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MILThis seasonGS
1-5Record4-3
2-4ATS5-2
5-1O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 123–111 · win probability GS 80%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 234.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

MIL 0, GS 8 · 2026-27 so far
GSBig
GS offense vs MIL defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSBig
MIL offense vs GS defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
GSBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, GS 16.7%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, GS 17.6%
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
GSBig
Recent form
Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0
GSSmall
Three-pointers
MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 45.9% and 47.1% of their shots
GSSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, GS 28.8. Allowed: MIL 29.7, GS 27.3
GSSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0
GSSmall
Home court
GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, MIL 0-2 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, GS 70.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelGS -11.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model234.0
Model edge—
Projected score
MIL 111 · GS 122.9
Win probability
GS 80%
1st half
Spread
GS -6.6
Total
117.0
Projected score
MIL 55.2 · GS 61.8
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 1, Warriors 4, even 0
BucksBetterWarriors
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6
GSBig
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2
GSBig
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51
MILBig
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31
GSBig
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56
GSSmall
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
BucksBetterWarriors
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
GSBig
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
GSBig
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
GSBig
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
GSBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
GSBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIL betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bucks
Guards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MILGS
Scoring
113.0 #17Points per game117.7 #11
1.07 #20Points per possession1.17 #3
106.2 #4Pace (possessions)101.4 #25
Shooting
52.0 #21Effective FG%55.3 #8
33.9 #213-point %40.0 #2
45.9 #83-point attempt rate47.1 #5
23.9 #25Free throw rate28.8 #15
Possessions
15.8 #18Turnover rate16.7 #22
29.7 #8Offensive rebound rate33.2 #1
26.0 #20Assists per game27.4 #10
Defense
126.2 #28Points allowed114.9 #16
1.18 #28Points allowed per possession1.13 #21
55.4 #24Opponent effective FG%56.0 #25
34.9 #14Opponent 3-point %35.2 #16
12.2 #30Turnovers forced17.6 #5
74.2 #10Defensive rebound rate70.4 #23
5.7 #30Steals per game9.1 #11
4.0 #27Blocks per game4.1 #24
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Cavaliers111–136
  • Lvs Rockets100–132
  • Wvs Pacers110–102
  • L@ 76ers116–127
  • Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.