Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 22, 9:30 PM ETFrost Bank Center · at Spurs · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Spurs
MIN	This season	SA
4-3	Record	4-2
6-1	ATS	2-4
4-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 115–113 · win probability SA 57%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 5, SA 3 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 42.8% and 39.0% of their shots

MINSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, SA 13.1%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, SA 15.7%

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0

SASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, SA 24.5. Allowed: MIN 28.9, SA 21.7

SASmall

Home court

SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, MIN 2-2 away

MINSmall

MIN offense vs SA defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

MINSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, SA 75.8%

Even

SA offense vs MIN defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: MIN away; SA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 24	@ DET	L108–113WO
Jan 25	@ MEM	W117–110LU
Jan 27	vs DEN	W110–98

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 24	vs POR	W114–95WU
Jan 26	vs HOU	L110–114LU
Jan 27	vs CHA	W115–102WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

MIN 15–10 SAMIN leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 3 meetings · MIN 11-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 31, 2026-27	MIN 111 @ SA 121	SA -12.5	MIN W
May 15, 2025-26	SA 139 @ MIN 109	MIN +5.5	SA W
May 12, 2025-26	MIN 97 @ SA 126	SA -10.5	SA W
May 10, 2025-26	SA 109 @ MIN 114	MIN +5.5	MIN W
May 8, 2025-26	SA 115 @ MIN 108	MIN +5.5	SA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 2, Spurs 1, even 2

TimberwolvesBetterSpurs

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

SABig

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINBig

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

Even

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

MINSmall

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

Even

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

TimberwolvesBetterSpurs

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Even

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

Even

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

SABig

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

SABig

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

SA117.3 #12

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

SA1.12 #10

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

SA104.3 #11

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

SA53.3 #16

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

SA34.9 #17

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

SA39.0 #24

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

SA24.5 #24

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

SA13.1 #2

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

SA27.2 #16

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

SA27.5 #9

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

SA110.2 #12

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

SA1.06 #6

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

SA52.1 #11

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

SA37.3 #23

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

SA15.7 #14

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

SA75.8 #7

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

SA9.2 #10

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

SA7.0 #1

MIN		SA
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	117.3 #12
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.12 #10
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	104.3 #11
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	53.3 #16
37.6 #6	3-point %	34.9 #17
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	39.0 #24
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	24.5 #24
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	13.1 #2
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #16
27.3 #11	Assists per game	27.5 #9
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	110.2 #12
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #6
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #11
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	37.3 #23
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	15.7 #14
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	75.8 #7
9.0 #13	Steals per game	9.2 #10
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	7.0 #1

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Spurs

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Spurs

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Spurs