Frost Bank Center · at Spurs · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 POR | This season | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 116–111 · win probability SA 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 226.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it
POR 3, SA 3 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBigThree-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 51.5% and 39.0% of their shots
PORSmallShooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
SASmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, SA 13.1%. Forced: POR 14.8%, SA 15.7%
SASmallSA offense vs POR defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, SA 24.5. Allowed: POR 27.8, SA 21.7
SASmallHome court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, POR 3-0 away
Even
POR offense vs SA defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, SA 75.8%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -5.7
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model226.7
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 110.5 · SA 116.2
Win probability
SA 66%
1st half
Spread
SA -3.1
Total
113.6
Projected score
POR 55.2 · SA 58.3
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PORlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 23 since 2021-22
POR 7–16 SASA leads · 23 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 3 meetings · POR 8-15 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2025-26 | POR 95 @ SA 114 | SA -10.5 | SA W |
| Apr 26, 2025-26 | SA 114 @ POR 93 | POR +5.5 | SA W |
| Apr 24, 2025-26 | SA 120 @ POR 108 | POR +1.5 | SA W |
| Apr 21, 2025-26 | POR 106 @ SA 103 | SA -11.5 | POR W |
| Apr 19, 2025-26 | POR 98 @ SA 111 | SA -11.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Trail Blazers
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
PHX
PHXW 124-83
+37.5
23
@
SAC
SACW 128-120
−1.5
27
@
LAL
LALW 136-129
+8.5
29
vs
MEM
MEML 103-124
−28.5
31
@
UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
+15.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsPHX
PHXW 124-83
−25.5
23
@SAC
SACW 128-120
+16.5
27
@LAL
LALW 136-129
+30.5
29
vsMEM
MEML 103-124
−6.5
31
@UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
−30.5
over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Trail Blazers 0, Spurs 3, even 2
Trail BlazersBetterSpurs
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 89
=Even
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 34
→SASmall
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 82
=Even
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 44
→SASmall
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 74
→SASmall
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
Trail BlazersBetterSpurs
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
=Even
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
→SASmall
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
→SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
=Even
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
→SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail BlazersGuards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
POR120.6 #4SA117.3 #12Points per possession
POR1.16 #5SA1.12 #10Pace (possessions)
POR103.5 #14SA104.3 #11Shooting
Effective FG%
POR56.2 #4SA53.3 #163-point %
POR35.3 #12SA34.9 #173-point attempt rate
POR51.5 #1SA39.0 #24Free throw rate
POR35.9 #3SA24.5 #24Possessions
Turnover rate
POR14.6 #9SA13.1 #2Offensive rebound rate
POR27.6 #14SA27.2 #16Assists per game
POR26.2 #17SA27.5 #9Defense
Points allowed
POR109.2 #10SA110.2 #12Points allowed per possession
POR1.06 #10SA1.06 #6Opponent effective FG%
POR51.3 #8SA52.1 #11Opponent 3-point %
POR32.1 #8SA37.3 #23Turnovers forced
POR14.8 #20SA15.7 #14Defensive rebound rate
POR77.3 #3SA75.8 #7Steals per game
POR8.6 #18SA9.2 #10Blocks per game
POR4.2 #21SA7.0 #1| POR | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 120.6 #4 | Points per game | 117.3 #12 |
| 1.16 #5 | Points per possession | 1.12 #10 |
| 103.5 #14 | Pace (possessions) | 104.3 #11 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.2 #4 | Effective FG% | 53.3 #16 |
| 35.3 #12 | 3-point % | 34.9 #17 |
| 51.5 #1 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.0 #24 |
| 35.9 #3 | Free throw rate | 24.5 #24 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.6 #9 | Turnover rate | 13.1 #2 |
| 27.6 #14 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #16 |
| 26.2 #17 | Assists per game | 27.5 #9 |
| Defense | ||
| 109.2 #10 | Points allowed | 110.2 #12 |
| 1.06 #10 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #6 |
| 51.3 #8 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #11 |
| 32.1 #8 | Opponent 3-point % | 37.3 #23 |
| 14.8 #20 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #14 |
| 77.3 #3 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.8 #7 |
| 8.6 #18 | Steals per game | 9.2 #10 |
| 4.2 #21 | Blocks per game | 7.0 #1 |
Trail Blazers
4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Jazz112–90
- Lvs Grizzlies103–124
- W@ Lakers136–129
- W@ Kings128–120
- Wvs Suns124–83
A week or more of rest.
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.