Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 22, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns · Conference game

#26UTAHJazz

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jazz and Suns
UTAH	This season	PHX
1-5	Record	1-3
1-5	ATS	0-4
2-4	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 119–113 · win probability PHX 68%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHX has more of the edges

UTAH 2, PHX 3 · 2026-27 so far

PHXBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, PHX 17.1%

PHXSmall

PHX offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

UTAHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, PHX 65.1%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

UTAHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, PHX 22.8. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, PHX 31.1

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, UTAH 0-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 4: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

UTAH offense vs PHX defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 41.7% and 45.1% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: UTAH away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 24	@ PHX	L109–134LO
Jan 26	vs MIL	W128–96WU
Jan 28	vs GS	W119–116WO

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 24	vs UTAH	W134–109WO
Jan 26	@ NY	W106–99WU
Jan 27	@ BKN	W106–102LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

UTAH 3–15 PHXPHX leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 2 meetings · UTAH 8-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 28, 2025-26	UTAH 109 @ PHX 134	PHX -17.5	PHX W
Oct 31, 2025-26	UTAH 96 @ PHX 118	PHX -3.5	PHX W
Oct 27, 2025-26	PHX 134 @ UTAH 138	UTAH -1.5	UTAH W
Feb 7, 2024-25	UTAH 127 @ PHX 135	PHX -7.5	PHX W
Jan 11, 2024-25	UTAH 106 @ PHX 114	PHX -10.5	UTAH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Jazz has the better starters

Position by position: Jazz 2, Suns 1, even 2

JazzBetterSuns

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

PHXBig

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

Even

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

Even

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

UTAHBig

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

UTAHSmall

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

JazzBetterSuns

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Even

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

PHXSmall

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

UTAHBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Even

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTAH108.7 #24

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

UTAH1.05 #25

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

UTAH104.0 #12

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTAH51.0 #24

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

UTAH32.6 #23

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

UTAH41.7 #21

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

UTAH31.6 #10

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTAH17.0 #25

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

UTAH25.7 #22

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

UTAH26.2 #19

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

UTAH118.8 #25

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

UTAH1.14 #25

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

UTAH53.9 #18

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

UTAH37.6 #25

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

UTAH13.3 #28

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

UTAH77.1 #4

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

UTAH6.2 #29

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

UTAH6.5 #5

PHX5.3 #10

UTAH		PHX
Scoring
108.7 #24	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.05 #25	Points per possession	1.12 #12
104.0 #12	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
51.0 #24	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
32.6 #23	3-point %	35.0 #16
41.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
31.6 #10	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
17.0 #25	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
25.7 #22	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
26.2 #19	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
118.8 #25	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.14 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
53.9 #18	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
37.6 #25	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
13.3 #28	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
77.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
6.2 #29	Steals per game	9.0 #15
6.5 #5	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Jazz @ Suns

What could decide it: PHX has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Jazz

Suns

Jazz has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jazz

Suns