Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 22, 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and Thunder
MEM	This season	OKC
6-0	Record	4-2
6-0	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 116–109 · win probability OKC 68%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 5, OKC 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 42.1% and 35.8% of their shots

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

OKCSmall

MEM offense vs OKC defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

MEMSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, OKC 71.4%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, OKC 15.8%

OKCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, OKC 21.8. Allowed: MEM 31.4, OKC 23.4

MEMSmall

OKC offense vs MEM defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, MEM 4-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: MEM away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 25	vs MIN	L110–117WU
Jan 28	@ OKC	L116–117WO
Jan 30	@ UTAH	W110–105WU

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 24	@ GS	W104–97LU
Jan 26	@ LAL	W115–110LO
Jan 28	vs MEM	W117–116LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

MEM 4–17 OKCOKC leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 16 meetings · MEM 7-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 9, 2025-26	OKC 117 @ MEM 116	MEM +5.5	MEM W
Dec 22, 2025-26	MEM 103 @ OKC 119	OKC -15.5	OKC W
Nov 9, 2025-26	OKC 114 @ MEM 100	MEM +10.5	OKC W
Apr 26, 2024-25	OKC 117 @ MEM 115	MEM +15.5	MEM W
Apr 24, 2024-25	OKC 114 @ MEM 108	MEM +9.5	MEM W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 2, Thunder 0, even 3

GrizzliesBetterThunder

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

Even

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

Even

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

MEMSmall

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

MEMBig

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

Even

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

GrizzliesBetterThunder

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

OKCSmall

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

MEMSmall

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

OKCBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

OKC6.3 #7

MEM		OKC
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.16 #4	Points per possession	1.05 #23
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
41.7 #1	3-point %	30.9 #26
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
27.0 #13	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
6.3 #28	Steals per game	8.3 #20
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ Thunder

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

Thunder

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

Thunder