Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 24, 8:30 PM ETChase Center · at Warriors · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Warriors
OKC	This season	GS
4-2	Record	4-3
3-3	ATS	5-2
1-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 113–113 · win probability GS 51%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

OKC 1, GS 5 · 2026-27 so far

GSBig

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 35.8% and 47.1% of their shots

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0

OKCSmall

GS offense vs OKC defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

GSSmall

Home court

GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, OKC 1-2 away

GSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, GS 28.8. Allowed: OKC 23.4, GS 27.3

GSSmall

OKC offense vs GS defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, GS 16.7%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, GS 17.6%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, GS 70.4%

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—

Venue/role: OKC away; GS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 26	@ LAL	W115–110LO
Jan 28	vs MEM	W117–116LO
Jan 30	vs DEN	W96–84WU

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 27	@ POR	W119–97WU
Jan 28	@ UTAH	L116–119LO
Jan 30	vs SA	L113–127WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

OKC 9–9 GSSeries tied · 18 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 4 meetings · OKC 8-9-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 7, 2025-26	GS 97 @ OKC 104	OKC -11.5	GS W
Jan 2, 2025-26	OKC 131 @ GS 94	GS +13.5	OKC W
Dec 2, 2025-26	OKC 124 @ GS 112	GS +11.5	OKC W
Nov 11, 2025-26	GS 102 @ OKC 126	OKC -7.5	OKC W
Jan 29, 2024-25	OKC 109 @ GS 116	GS +9.5	GS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 3, Warriors 1, even 1

ThunderBetterWarriors

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCSmall

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

Even

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

GSBig

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCSmall

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

ThunderBetterWarriors

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Even

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCSmall

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

GS117.7 #11

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

GS1.17 #3

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

GS101.4 #25

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

GS55.3 #8

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

GS40.0 #2

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

GS47.1 #5

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

GS28.8 #15

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

GS16.7 #22

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

GS33.2 #1

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

GS27.4 #10

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

GS114.9 #16

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

GS1.13 #21

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

GS56.0 #25

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

GS35.2 #16

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

GS17.6 #5

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

GS70.4 #23

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

GS9.1 #11

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

GS4.1 #24

OKC		GS
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	117.7 #11
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.17 #3
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	101.4 #25
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	55.3 #8
30.9 #26	3-point %	40.0 #2
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #5
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	28.8 #15
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	16.7 #22
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #1
21.7 #29	Assists per game	27.4 #10
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	114.9 #16
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #21
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #25
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #16
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	17.6 #5
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #23
8.3 #20	Steals per game	9.1 #11
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	4.1 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Warriors

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Warriors

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Warriors