American Airlines Center · at Mavericks
LineNo line yet
Total—
 CHA | This season | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 3-4 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 1-6 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DAL 113–107 · win probability DAL 66%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 219.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges
CHA 2, DAL 5 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DALBigThree-pointers
CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 50.8% and 42.1% of their shots
DALBigShooting
Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
CHABigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, DAL 69.4%
DALBigCHA offense vs DAL defense
Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
CHABigDAL offense vs CHA defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
DALSmallRecent form
Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
DALSmallHome court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, CHA 1-2 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, DAL 14.5%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, DAL 21.4. Allowed: CHA 28.4, DAL 27.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -5.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model219.7
Model edge—
Projected score
CHA 107 · DAL 112.6
Win probability
DAL 66%
1st half
Spread
DAL -3.0
Total
110.3
Projected score
CHA 53.6 · DAL 56.7
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHAlast 7 | 3-4 43% | 3-4 43% | 1-6 14% |
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
CHA 6–4 DALCHA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 2 meetings · CHA 7-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025-26 | DAL 90 @ CHA 117 | CHA -13.5 | CHA W |
| Jan 29, 2025-26 | CHA 123 @ DAL 121 | DAL +3.5 | DAL W |
| Feb 27, 2024-25 | CHA 96 @ DAL 103 | DAL -10.5 | CHA W |
| Jan 20, 2024-25 | DAL 105 @ CHA 110 | CHA +3.5 | CHA W |
| Apr 9, 2023-24 | DAL 130 @ CHA 104 | CHA +12.5 | DAL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Hornets
7 games played
Straight up
3-4
43% wins
Against the spread
3-4
43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-6
14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ BKN | W 110-103 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 220.5 | U 213 |
| Oct 23 | vs ATL | L 81-128 | +2.5 | L −44.5 | 226.5 | U 209 |
| Oct 24 | vs MIA | W 115-110 | +4.5 | W +9.5 | 227.5 | U 225 |
| Oct 26 | vs WSH | W 110-103 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 225.5 | U 213 |
| Oct 28 | @ DET | L 89-97 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 212.5 | U 186 |
| Oct 30 | @WSH | L 79-95 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 218.5 | U 174 |
| Oct 31 | vs PHI | L 104-109 | +1.5 | L −3.5 | 211.5 | O 213 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@BKN
BKNW 110-103
+5.5
23
vsATL
ATLL 81-128
−44.5
24
vsMIA
MIAW 115-110
+9.5
26
vsWSH
WSHW 110-103
+4.5
28
@DET
DETL 89-97
−0.5
30
@WSH
WSHL 79-95
−14.5
31
vsPHI
PHIL 104-109
−3.5
covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@BKN
BKNW 110-103
−7.5
23
vsATL
ATLL 81-128
−17.5
24
vsMIA
MIAW 115-110
−2.5
26
vsWSH
WSHW 110-103
−12.5
28
@DET
DETL 89-97
−26.5
30
@WSH
WSHL 79-95
−44.5
31
vsPHI
PHIL 104-109
+1.5
over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mavericks has the better starters
Position by position: Hornets 1, Mavericks 2, even 2
HornetsBetterMavericks
G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast
Score 21
=Even
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
Score 63
→DALSmall
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 70
←CHASmall
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast
Score 66
=Even
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast
Score 14
→DALSmall
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
HornetsBetterMavericks
CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4
→DALBig
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4
←CHASmall
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
←CHABig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players
→DALBig
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench-5.0 · 5 players
→DALBig
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCHA betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
HornetsGuards
D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew
Forwards
B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min
Centers
N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
CHA98.3 #30DAL114.3 #14Points per possession
CHA0.99 #30DAL1.12 #11Pace (possessions)
CHA98.3 #30DAL102.8 #18Shooting
Effective FG%
CHA48.4 #29DAL56.9 #23-point %
CHA29.6 #28DAL35.1 #143-point attempt rate
CHA50.8 #2DAL42.1 #18Free throw rate
CHA18.9 #30DAL21.4 #29Possessions
Turnover rate
CHA18.8 #29DAL16.8 #23Offensive rebound rate
CHA31.6 #4DAL27.8 #13Assists per game
CHA21.6 #30DAL27.0 #12Defense
Points allowed
CHA106.4 #4DAL111.8 #14Points allowed per possession
CHA1.09 #15DAL1.08 #13Opponent effective FG%
CHA53.1 #15DAL51.3 #9Opponent 3-point %
CHA37.5 #24DAL29.7 #2Turnovers forced
CHA14.5 #23DAL14.5 #24Defensive rebound rate
CHA76.6 #5DAL69.4 #25Steals per game
CHA7.1 #25DAL8.8 #16Blocks per game
CHA5.0 #15DAL6.8 #2| CHA | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 98.3 #30 | Points per game | 114.3 #14 |
| 0.99 #30 | Points per possession | 1.12 #11 |
| 98.3 #30 | Pace (possessions) | 102.8 #18 |
| Shooting | ||
| 48.4 #29 | Effective FG% | 56.9 #2 |
| 29.6 #28 | 3-point % | 35.1 #14 |
| 50.8 #2 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.1 #18 |
| 18.9 #30 | Free throw rate | 21.4 #29 |
| Possessions | ||
| 18.8 #29 | Turnover rate | 16.8 #23 |
| 31.6 #4 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.8 #13 |
| 21.6 #30 | Assists per game | 27.0 #12 |
| Defense | ||
| 106.4 #4 | Points allowed | 111.8 #14 |
| 1.09 #15 | Points allowed per possession | 1.08 #13 |
| 53.1 #15 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.3 #9 |
| 37.5 #24 | Opponent 3-point % | 29.7 #2 |
| 14.5 #23 | Turnovers forced | 14.5 #24 |
| 76.6 #5 | Defensive rebound rate | 69.4 #25 |
| 7.1 #25 | Steals per game | 8.8 #16 |
| 5.0 #15 | Blocks per game | 6.8 #2 |
Hornets
3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs 76ers104–109
- L@ Wizards79–95
- L@ Pistons89–97
- Wvs Wizards110–103
- Wvs Heat115–110
A week or more of rest.
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.