1. Home
  2. NBA
  3. Tue, Jan 19
  4. POR @ MIA
NBA · Tue, Jan 19

Trail Blazers @ Heat

Kaseya Center · at Heat
#9PORTrail Blazers
@
#18MIAHeat
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PORThis seasonMIA
4-1Record2-4
3-2ATS2-4
2-3O/U3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 119–116 · win probability POR 59%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 235.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

POR 5, MIA 2 · 2026-27 so far
PORBig
POR offense vs MIA defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBig
Three-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 51.5% and 41.7% of their shots
PORBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8
PORBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, MIA 72.3%
MIABig
MIA offense vs POR defense
Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points
PORSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, MIA 27.3. Allowed: POR 27.8, MIA 23.2
MIASmall
Home court
MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, POR 3-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: POR 14.8%, MIA 15.4%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -3.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model235.0
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 119 · MIA 116
Win probability
POR 59%
1st half
Spread
POR -1.9
Total
117.5
Projected score
POR 59.7 · MIA 57.8
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Trail Blazers 1, Heat 1, even 3
Trail BlazersBetterHeat
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
PORBig
G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
Even
G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
Even
F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
MIASmall
F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
Even
C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66
Trail BlazersBetterHeat
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
PORBig
MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
MIASmall
MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
PORBig
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
MIABig
Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
PORBig
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
Heat
Guards
D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min
Forwards
G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min
Centers
B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min
Out
T. HardawayDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PORMIA
Scoring
120.6 #4Points per game118.3 #9
1.16 #5Points per possession1.11 #14
103.5 #14Pace (possessions)106.2 #5
Shooting
56.2 #4Effective FG%54.6 #12
35.3 #123-point %34.1 #19
51.5 #13-point attempt rate41.7 #20
35.9 #3Free throw rate27.3 #19
Possessions
14.6 #9Turnover rate14.1 #5
27.6 #14Offensive rebound rate24.5 #24
26.2 #17Assists per game28.8 #3
Defense
109.2 #10Points allowed121.5 #26
1.06 #10Points allowed per possession1.15 #26
51.3 #8Opponent effective FG%56.8 #27
32.1 #8Opponent 3-point %40.6 #29
14.8 #20Turnovers forced15.4 #18
77.3 #3Defensive rebound rate72.3 #17
8.6 #18Steals per game8.3 #19
4.2 #21Blocks per game5.0 #13
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Pacers145–125
  • W@ Hawks129–117
  • Lvs Mavericks109–113
  • L@ Hornets110–115
  • Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.