Kia Center · at Magic
LineNo line yet
Total—
 POR | This season | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-4 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects POR 116–112 · win probability POR 61%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 227.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: POR has more of the edges
POR 6, ORL 1 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, ORL 68.9%
PORBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: POR 14.8%, ORL 13.6%
PORBigORL offense vs POR defense
Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmallShooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0
PORSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, ORL 31.7. Allowed: POR 27.8, ORL 29.8
PORSmallPOR offense vs ORL defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
ORLSmallHome court
ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, POR 3-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4
Even
Three-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 51.5% and 46.5% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -3.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model227.1
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 115.5 · ORL 111.6
Win probability
POR 61%
1st half
Spread
POR -2.3
Total
113.8
Projected score
POR 58.1 · ORL 55.7
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PORlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
| ORLlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
POR 4–6 ORLORL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 2 meetings · POR 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025-26 | ORL 110 @ POR 106 | POR +1.5 | ORL W |
| Nov 10, 2025-26 | POR 112 @ ORL 115 | ORL -2.5 | ORL W |
| Jan 30, 2024-25 | ORL 90 @ POR 119 | POR +5.5 | POR W |
| Jan 23, 2024-25 | POR 101 @ ORL 79 | ORL -6.5 | POR W |
| Apr 1, 2023-24 | POR 103 @ ORL 104 | ORL -17.5 | POR W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Trail Blazers
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
PHX
PHXW 124-83
+37.5
23
@
SAC
SACW 128-120
−1.5
27
@
LAL
LALW 136-129
+8.5
29
vs
MEM
MEML 103-124
−28.5
31
@
UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
+15.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsPHX
PHXW 124-83
−25.5
23
@SAC
SACW 128-120
+16.5
27
@LAL
LALW 136-129
+30.5
29
vsMEM
MEML 103-124
−6.5
31
@UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
−30.5
over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Magic
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
ATL
ATLL 125-132
−9.5
23
vs
MIN
MINL 93-115
−23.5
25
@
NY
NYW 111-102
+15.5
28
@
TOR
TORL 99-129
−24.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+12.5
1
vs
BOS
BOSL 97-108
−4.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsATL
ATLL 125-132
+23.5
23
vsMIN
MINL 93-115
−26.5
25
@NY
NYW 111-102
−11.5
28
@TOR
TORL 99-129
+3.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+8.5
1
vsBOS
BOSL 97-108
−16.5
over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Trail Blazers has the better starters
Position by position: Trail Blazers 3, Magic 0, even 2
Trail BlazersBetterMagic
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 89
←PORSmall
G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 62
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 34
←PORSmall
G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
Score 3
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 82
=Even
F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast
Score 90
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 44
=Even
F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 35
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 74
←PORBig
C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 28
Trail BlazersBetterMagic
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
←PORSmall
ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
←PORSmall
ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
←PORBig
Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
←PORSmall
Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
←PORBig
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail BlazersGuards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
MagicGuards
D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min
Forwards
F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min
Centers
W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min
Out
J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
POR120.6 #4ORL107.7 #26Points per possession
POR1.16 #5ORL1.07 #21Pace (possessions)
POR103.5 #14ORL101.9 #22Shooting
Effective FG%
POR56.2 #4ORL53.4 #153-point %
POR35.3 #12ORL35.4 #113-point attempt rate
POR51.5 #1ORL46.5 #6Free throw rate
POR35.9 #3ORL31.7 #9Possessions
Turnover rate
POR14.6 #9ORL17.0 #24Offensive rebound rate
POR27.6 #14ORL23.4 #26Assists per game
POR26.2 #17ORL26.3 #16Defense
Points allowed
POR109.2 #10ORL116.7 #22Points allowed per possession
POR1.06 #10ORL1.13 #24Opponent effective FG%
POR51.3 #8ORL53.0 #13Opponent 3-point %
POR32.1 #8ORL34.6 #13Turnovers forced
POR14.8 #20ORL13.6 #26Defensive rebound rate
POR77.3 #3ORL68.9 #26Steals per game
POR8.6 #18ORL7.0 #26Blocks per game
POR4.2 #21ORL4.2 #23| POR | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 120.6 #4 | Points per game | 107.7 #26 |
| 1.16 #5 | Points per possession | 1.07 #21 |
| 103.5 #14 | Pace (possessions) | 101.9 #22 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.2 #4 | Effective FG% | 53.4 #15 |
| 35.3 #12 | 3-point % | 35.4 #11 |
| 51.5 #1 | 3-point attempt rate | 46.5 #6 |
| 35.9 #3 | Free throw rate | 31.7 #9 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.6 #9 | Turnover rate | 17.0 #24 |
| 27.6 #14 | Offensive rebound rate | 23.4 #26 |
| 26.2 #17 | Assists per game | 26.3 #16 |
| Defense | ||
| 109.2 #10 | Points allowed | 116.7 #22 |
| 1.06 #10 | Points allowed per possession | 1.13 #24 |
| 51.3 #8 | Opponent effective FG% | 53.0 #13 |
| 32.1 #8 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.6 #13 |
| 14.8 #20 | Turnovers forced | 13.6 #26 |
| 77.3 #3 | Defensive rebound rate | 68.9 #26 |
| 8.6 #18 | Steals per game | 7.0 #26 |
| 4.2 #21 | Blocks per game | 4.2 #23 |
Trail Blazers
4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Jazz112–90
- Lvs Grizzlies103–124
- W@ Lakers136–129
- W@ Kings128–120
- Wvs Suns124–83
A week or more of rest.
Magic
2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Celtics97–108
- W@ Raptors121–114
- L@ Raptors99–129
- W@ Knicks111–102
- Lvs Timberwolves93–115
A week or more of rest.