Houston Rockets at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 22, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Hornets
HOU	This season	CHA
6-1	Record	3-4
6-1	ATS	3-4
5-2	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 112–104 · win probability HOU 72%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 215.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 6, CHA 2 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

CHA offense vs HOU defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 38.1% and 50.8% of their shots

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

HOUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, CHA 18.9. Allowed: HOU 24.7, CHA 28.4

HOUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, CHA 14.5%

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, HOU 3-1 away

CHASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, CHA 76.6%

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

Even

HOU offense vs CHA defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: HOU away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 24	@ ORL	W113–108WO
Jan 26	@ SA	W114–110WU
Jan 27	vs NO	W134–102WO

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 23	@ BOS	L102–113LU
Jan 25	vs ORL	L90–121LU
Jan 27	@ SA	L102–115LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

HOU 6–4 CHAHOU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 19, 2025-26	HOU 105 @ CHA 101	CHA +4.5	CHA W
Feb 5, 2025-26	CHA 109 @ HOU 99	HOU -4.5	CHA W
Dec 23, 2024-25	HOU 114 @ CHA 101	CHA +6.5	HOU W
Oct 23, 2024-25	CHA 110 @ HOU 105	HOU -8.5	CHA W
Jan 26, 2023-24	HOU 138 @ CHA 104	CHA +4.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 4, Hornets 0, even 1

RocketsBetterHornets

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

HOUBig

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

HOUSmall

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

Even

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

HOUSmall

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

HOUBig

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

RocketsBetterHornets

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Even

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

HOUBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

CHA5.0 #15

HOU		CHA
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.20 #1	Points per possession	0.99 #30
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
39.0 #3	3-point %	29.6 #28
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
28.1 #5	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
9.7 #6	Steals per game	7.1 #25
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Hornets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Hornets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Hornets