New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 22, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Hawks
NY	This season	ATL
2-4	Record	3-4
1-5	ATS	3-4
1-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 113–111 · win probability NY 54%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

NY 3, ATL 3 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: NY 13.2%, ATL 18.3%

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, ATL 70.9%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

NYBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, ATL 23.4. Allowed: NY 25.9, ATL 32.1

ATLSmall

NY offense vs ATL defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, NY 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NYSmall

ATL offense vs NY defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 43.2% and 44.7% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: NY away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 24	vs LAC	L118–126LO
Jan 26	vs PHX	L99–106LU
Jan 28	vs ATL	W140–89WO

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 23	@ MIA	L117–129LO
Jan 26	@ DET	W130–129WO
Jan 28	@ NY	L89–140LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

NY 16–9 ATLNY leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 3 meetings · NY 14-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 30, 2025-26	NY 140 @ ATL 89	ATL +2.5	NY W
Apr 28, 2025-26	ATL 97 @ NY 126	NY -6.5	NY W
Apr 25, 2025-26	NY 114 @ ATL 98	ATL +2.5	NY W
Apr 23, 2025-26	NY 108 @ ATL 109	ATL +1.5	ATL W
Apr 20, 2025-26	ATL 107 @ NY 106	NY -5.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 3, Hawks 0, even 2

KnicksBetterHawks

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYSmall

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

Even

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

NYSmall

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

Even

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

NYBig

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

KnicksBetterHawks

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

ATLSmall

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

Even

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

ATL3.7 #29

NY		ATL
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.10 #16
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
35.2 #13	3-point %	32.8 #22
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
26.2 #18	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
7.3 #23	Steals per game	9.4 #8
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Hawks

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Hawks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Hawks