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NBA · Fri, Jan 22

Pacers @ Pistons

Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons · Conference game
#25INDPacers
@
#4DETPistons
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
INDThis seasonDET
2-5Record5-1
3-4ATS5-1
3-4O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 119–105 · win probability DET 84%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 223.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

IND 0, DET 8 · 2026-27 so far
DETBig
IND offense vs DET defense
Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETBig
Three-pointers
IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 43.1% and 43.3% of their shots
DETSmall
DET offense vs IND defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings
DETSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
DETSmall
Recent form
Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
DETSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, DET 72.8%
DETSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: IND 31.2, DET 28.9. Allowed: IND 32.1, DET 28.1
DETSmall
Home court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, IND 2-2 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, DET 15.6%. Forced: IND 14.9%, DET 17.1%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -14.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model223.9
Model edge—
Projected score
IND 104.9 · DET 119
Win probability
DET 84%
1st half
Spread
DET -7.8
Total
112.3
Projected score
IND 52.2 · DET 60
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 1, Pistons 3, even 1
PacersBetterPistons
G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70
INDSmall
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32
DETBig
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
Even
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74
DETSmall
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10
DETSmall
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
PacersBetterPistons
IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3
DETBig
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8
DETSmall
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
DETBig
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench-26.3 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestIND betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pacers
Guards
A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min
Forwards
P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min
Centers
J. Huff17 min
Out
I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
INDDET
Scoring
112.9 #18Points per game109.8 #21
1.10 #17Points per possession1.09 #18
103.1 #15Pace (possessions)100.9 #29
Shooting
53.9 #14Effective FG%53.1 #17
34.1 #183-point %36.3 #9
43.1 #153-point attempt rate43.3 #13
31.2 #12Free throw rate28.9 #14
Possessions
14.8 #10Turnover rate15.6 #17
23.1 #27Offensive rebound rate27.2 #17
28.0 #7Assists per game26.7 #15
Defense
116.7 #23Points allowed101.8 #1
1.13 #23Points allowed per possession1.01 #1
53.9 #19Opponent effective FG%48.8 #2
35.9 #20Opponent 3-point %32.5 #10
14.9 #19Turnovers forced17.1 #6
72.7 #16Defensive rebound rate72.8 #15
6.9 #27Steals per game9.0 #12
4.0 #26Blocks per game6.7 #4
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Nets90–98
  • L@ Heat125–145
  • Lvs 76ers109–114
  • L@ Bucks102–110
  • W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.