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NBA · Wed, Jan 20

Trail Blazers @ Hawks

State Farm Arena · at Hawks
#9PORTrail Blazers
@
#14ATLHawks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PORThis seasonATL
4-1Record3-4
3-2ATS3-4
2-3O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 116–115 · win probability POR 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 230.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

POR 6, ATL 3 · 2026-27 so far
PORBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, ATL 23.4. Allowed: POR 27.8, ATL 32.1
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5
ATLBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: POR 14.8%, ATL 18.3%
PORBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, ATL 70.9%
PORSmall
POR offense vs ATL defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmall
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6
PORSmall
Three-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 51.5% and 44.7% of their shots
ATLSmall
Home court
ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, POR 3-0 away
ATLSmall
ATL offense vs POR defense
Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -1.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model230.7
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 116.1 · ATL 114.6
Win probability
POR 54%
1st half
Spread
POR -1.0
Total
115.5
Projected score
POR 58.2 · ATL 57.2
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Position by position: Trail Blazers 3, Hawks 2, even 0
Trail BlazersBetterHawks
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
PORSmall
G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
ATLBig
G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
PORSmall
G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
ATLSmall
G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
PORBig
F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30
Trail BlazersBetterHawks
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
PORSmall
ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
Even
ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
ATLBig
Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
PORBig
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
PORBig
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
Hawks
Guards
N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min
Forwards
O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min
Out
J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PORATL
Scoring
120.6 #4Points per game116.3 #13
1.16 #5Points per possession1.10 #16
103.5 #14Pace (possessions)105.6 #7
Shooting
56.2 #4Effective FG%52.6 #19
35.3 #123-point %32.8 #22
51.5 #13-point attempt rate44.7 #11
35.9 #3Free throw rate23.4 #26
Possessions
14.6 #9Turnover rate13.8 #4
27.6 #14Offensive rebound rate27.1 #18
26.2 #17Assists per game30.7 #1
Defense
109.2 #10Points allowed115.4 #19
1.06 #10Points allowed per possession1.10 #17
51.3 #8Opponent effective FG%54.5 #22
32.1 #8Opponent 3-point %31.9 #7
14.8 #20Turnovers forced18.3 #2
77.3 #3Defensive rebound rate70.9 #19
8.6 #18Steals per game9.4 #8
4.2 #21Blocks per game3.7 #29
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Pelicans99–121
  • Wvs Cavaliers114–111
  • Lvs Heat117–129
  • L@ Rockets110–120
  • Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.