Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 20, 7:00 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Nets
CHI	This season	BKN
1-5	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BKN 118–116 · win probability BKN 57%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

CHI 1, BKN 3 · 2026-27 so far

BKNBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 47.9% and 48.0% of their shots

CHIBig

CHI offense vs BKN defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, CHI 1-3 away

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, BKN 77.8%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, BKN 32.9. Allowed: CHI 33.5, BKN 33.5

Even

BKN offense vs CHI defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, BKN 15.9%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: CHI away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 23	vs PHI	L137–157LO
Jan 25	vs DAL	L128–149LO
Jan 26	@ IND	L126–145LO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 21	vs CLE	L121–125WO
Jan 23	vs TOR	L101–136LO
Jan 25	vs MIA	L110–126LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

CHI 8–9 BKNBKN leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · CHI 8-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 9, 2025-26	CHI 115 @ BKN 123	BKN +3.5	BKN W
Jan 18, 2025-26	BKN 102 @ CHI 124	CHI -7.5	CHI W
Jan 16, 2025-26	CHI 109 @ BKN 112	BKN -1.5	BKN W
Dec 3, 2025-26	BKN 113 @ CHI 103	CHI -7.5	BKN W
Mar 13, 2024-25	BKN 110 @ CHI 116	CHI -1.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Bulls 2, Nets 2, even 1

BullsBetterNets

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

CHIBig

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

CHISmall

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

BKNSmall

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

BKNBig

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

Even

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

BullsBetterNets

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

CHISmall

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

Even

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

BKNBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

CHIBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

BKN4.7 #17

CHI		BKN
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.03 #29
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
28.1 #30	3-point %	35.1 #15
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
24.3 #25	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
8.7 #17	Steals per game	9.0 #14
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Nets

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Nets

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Nets