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NBA · Sat, Jan 16

Pistons @ Rockets

Toyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets
#4DETPistons
@
#1HOURockets
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DETThis seasonHOU
5-1Record6-1
5-1ATS6-1
2-4O/U5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 112–108 · win probability HOU 62%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 219.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

DET 1, HOU 5 · 2026-27 so far
HOUBig
DET offense vs HOU defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
HOUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, HOU 73.2%
HOUSmall
Three-pointers
DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 43.3% and 38.1% of their shots
HOUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DET 28.9, HOU 31.9. Allowed: DET 28.1, HOU 24.7
Context
Schedule so far
DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmall
HOU offense vs DET defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
HOUSmall
Home court
HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, DET 3-1 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: DET 17.1%, HOU 15.7%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Recent form
Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -4.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model219.2
Model edge—
Projected score
DET 107.5 · HOU 111.7
Win probability
HOU 62%
1st half
Spread
HOU -2.2
Total
110.1
Projected score
DET 54 · HOU 56.1
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 1, Rockets 2, even 2
PistonsBetterRockets
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
Even
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
HOUSmall
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
Even
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
DETSmall
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
HOUBig
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84
PistonsBetterRockets
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
HOUBig
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
DETSmall
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
HOUBig
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
HOUBig
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDET betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Rockets
Guards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DETHOU
Scoring
109.8 #21Points per game120.7 #3
1.09 #18Points per possession1.20 #1
100.9 #29Pace (possessions)101.6 #24
Shooting
53.1 #17Effective FG%56.6 #3
36.3 #93-point %39.0 #3
43.3 #133-point attempt rate38.1 #26
28.9 #14Free throw rate31.9 #8
Possessions
15.6 #17Turnover rate15.1 #13
27.2 #17Offensive rebound rate32.4 #3
26.7 #15Assists per game28.1 #5
Defense
101.8 #1Points allowed108.3 #7
1.01 #1Points allowed per possession1.06 #8
48.8 #2Opponent effective FG%52.1 #10
32.5 #10Opponent 3-point %30.2 #4
17.1 #6Turnovers forced15.7 #16
72.8 #15Defensive rebound rate73.2 #14
9.0 #12Steals per game9.7 #6
6.7 #4Blocks per game5.9 #8
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Thunder119–98
  • L@ Mavericks111–116
  • W@ Bucks132–100
  • Wvs Hawks120–110
  • W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.