Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 20, 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Timberwolves
HOU	This season	MIN
6-1	Record	4-3
6-1	ATS	6-1
5-2	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 115–112 · win probability MIN 58%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

HOU 1, MIN 1 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, MIN 26.1. Allowed: HOU 24.7, MIN 28.9

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, HOU 3-1 away

Even

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 38.1% and 42.8% of their shots

Even

HOU offense vs MIN defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

Even

MIN offense vs HOU defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, MIN 75.4%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, MIN 15.6%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: HOU away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 22	@ CHA	W105–101LU
Jan 24	@ ORL	W113–108WO
Jan 26	@ SA	W114–110WU

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 22	@ SA	L111–121WO
Jan 24	@ DET	L108–113WO
Jan 25	@ MEM	W117–110LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

HOU 4–13 MINMIN leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings · HOU 6-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	MIN 136 @ HOU 132	HOU -9.5	MIN W
Mar 25, 2025-26	HOU 108 @ MIN 110	MIN +1.5	MIN W
Jan 16, 2025-26	MIN 105 @ HOU 110	HOU -3.5	HOU W
Feb 21, 2024-25	MIN 115 @ HOU 121	HOU -4.5	HOU W
Feb 6, 2024-25	HOU 114 @ MIN 127	MIN -0.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Rockets 1, Timberwolves 1, even 3

RocketsBetterTimberwolves

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

HOUSmall

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

Even

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

MINSmall

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

Even

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

Even

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

RocketsBetterTimberwolves

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Even

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

Even

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

MIN4.3 #20

HOU		MIN
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.13 #8
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
39.0 #3	3-point %	37.6 #6
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
28.1 #5	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
9.7 #6	Steals per game	9.0 #13
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Timberwolves

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Timberwolves

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Timberwolves