Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 20, 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Pelicans
OKC	This season	NO
4-2	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	4-2
1-5	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 116–113 · win probability OKC 59%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

OKC 3, NO 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

OKCBig

NO offense vs OKC defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, NO 17.4%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, NO 16.3%

NOSmall

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 35.8% and 32.8% of their shots

OKCSmall

OKC offense vs NO defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

NOSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, NO 35.3. Allowed: OKC 23.4, NO 30.6

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, NO 76.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: OKC away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 22	vs MEM	W117–116LO
Jan 24	@ GS	W104–97LU
Jan 26	@ LAL	W115–110LO

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 22	vs DAL	W129–111WU
Jan 25	vs CLE	L106–111LU
Jan 27	@ HOU	L102–134LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

OKC 17–5 NOOKC leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 13 meetings · OKC 16-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 27, 2025-26	NO 95 @ OKC 104	OKC -14.5	NO W
Nov 17, 2025-26	OKC 126 @ NO 109	NO +18.5	NO W
Nov 2, 2025-26	NO 106 @ OKC 137	OKC -13.5	OKC W
Apr 13, 2024-25	OKC 115 @ NO 100	NO +13.5	OKC W
Feb 10, 2024-25	NO 101 @ OKC 137	OKC -17.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 3, Pelicans 2, even 0

ThunderBetterPelicans

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCBig

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

NOBig

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

NOBig

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCBig

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

ThunderBetterPelicans

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

OKCSmall

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

NOBig

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

OKCBig

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

NO4.8 #16

OKC		NO
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	119.7 #7
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.10 #15
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
30.9 #26	3-point %	31.2 #25
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
21.7 #29	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
8.3 #20	Steals per game	13.7 #1
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Pelicans

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Pelicans

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Pelicans