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NBA · Mon, Jan 18

Rockets @ Grizzlies

FedExForum · at Grizzlies · Conference game
#1HOURockets
@
#12MEMGrizzlies
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
HOUThis seasonMEM
6-1Record6-0
6-1ATS6-0
5-2O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 117–110 · win probability HOU 69%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 227.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 3, MEM 1 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less
HOUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, MEM 25.3. Allowed: HOU 24.7, MEM 31.4
HOUSmall
HOU offense vs MEM defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
HOUSmall
MEM offense vs HOU defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points
MEMSmall
Home court
MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, HOU 3-1 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, MEM 75.0%
Even
Three-pointers
HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 38.1% and 42.1% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, MEM 15.7%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -6.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model227.5
Model edge—
Projected score
HOU 117.2 · MEM 110.4
Win probability
HOU 69%
1st half
Spread
HOU -4.0
Total
114.0
Projected score
HOU 59 · MEM 55
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Rockets 1, Grizzlies 1, even 3
RocketsBetterGrizzlies
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60
MEMBig
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94
Even
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79
HOUBig
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82
Even
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84
Even
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92
RocketsBetterGrizzlies
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
HOUSmall
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
HOUSmall
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
HOUSmall
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
HOUBig
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestHOU betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Rockets
Guards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
Grizzlies
Guards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HOUMEM
Scoring
120.7 #3Points per game121.2 #1
1.20 #1Points per possession1.16 #4
101.6 #24Pace (possessions)103.6 #13
Shooting
56.6 #3Effective FG%55.9 #5
39.0 #33-point %41.7 #1
38.1 #263-point attempt rate42.1 #19
31.9 #8Free throw rate25.3 #22
Possessions
15.1 #13Turnover rate15.4 #16
32.4 #3Offensive rebound rate30.6 #5
28.1 #5Assists per game27.0 #13
Defense
108.3 #7Points allowed106.0 #3
1.06 #8Points allowed per possession1.03 #2
52.1 #10Opponent effective FG%49.2 #3
30.2 #4Opponent 3-point %30.0 #3
15.7 #16Turnovers forced15.7 #15
73.2 #14Defensive rebound rate75.0 #9
9.7 #6Steals per game6.3 #28
5.9 #8Blocks per game5.2 #11
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Thunder119–98
  • L@ Mavericks111–116
  • W@ Bucks132–100
  • Wvs Hawks120–110
  • W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Kings136–105
  • W@ Trail Blazers124–103
  • W@ Jazz110–105
  • W@ Kings123–112
  • W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.