Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 17, 8:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Nuggets
ORL	This season	DEN
2-4	Record	3-2
2-4	ATS	2-3
3-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 118–113 · win probability DEN 65%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

ORL 0, DEN 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, DEN 15.9%

DENSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, DEN 70.5%

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, DEN 31.3. Allowed: ORL 29.8, DEN 21.5

DENSmall

DEN offense vs ORL defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Even

ORL offense vs DEN defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Even

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 46.5% and 40.9% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: ORL away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 19	vs GS	L97–120LU
Jan 22	vs POR	W110–106WU
Jan 24	vs HOU	L108–113LO

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 19	vs UTAH	W130–117LU
Jan 21	vs WSH	W107–97WU
Jan 23	vs MIL	W102–100WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ORL 5–5 DENSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 27, 2025-26	DEN 126 @ ORL 127	ORL +3.5	ORL W
Dec 18, 2025-26	ORL 115 @ DEN 126	DEN -6.5	DEN W
Feb 6, 2024-25	ORL 90 @ DEN 112	DEN -6.5	DEN W
Jan 19, 2024-25	DEN 113 @ ORL 100	ORL +7.5	DEN W
Jan 5, 2023-24	ORL 122 @ DEN 120	DEN -9.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 2, Nuggets 3, even 0

MagicBetterNuggets

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

ORLSmall

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

DENBig

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

ORLSmall

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

DENBig

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

DENBig

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

MagicBetterNuggets

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Even

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

DENSmall

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

ORLSmall

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

DEN4.4 #18

ORL		DEN
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.13 #9
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
35.4 #11	3-point %	37.4 #7
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
26.3 #16	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
7.0 #26	Steals per game	10.2 #5
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Nuggets