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NBA · Sun, Jan 17

Warriors @ Heat

Kaseya Center · at Heat
#13GSWarriors
@
#18MIAHeat
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GSThis seasonMIA
4-3Record2-4
5-2ATS2-4
4-3O/U3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 120–119 · win probability MIA 52%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 238.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 4, MIA 2 · 2026-27 so far
GSBig
GS offense vs MIA defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
GSBig
Three-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 47.1% and 41.7% of their shots
MIABig
MIA offense vs GS defense
Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points
GSBig
Recent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2
GSSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, MIA 72.3%
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MIASmall
Home court
MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, GS 2-2 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: GS 17.6%, MIA 15.4%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, MIA 27.3. Allowed: GS 27.3, MIA 23.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIA -0.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model238.2
Model edge—
Projected score
GS 118.7 · MIA 119.5
Win probability
MIA 52%
1st half
Spread
MIA -0.3
Total
119.0
Projected score
GS 59.3 · MIA 59.6
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 3, Heat 1, even 1
WarriorsBetterHeat
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
GSSmall
G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
GSBig
G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
MIABig
F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
GSSmall
F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
Even
C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66
WarriorsBetterHeat
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
GSBig
MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
MIABig
MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
GSBig
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
MIABig
Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
GSBig
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Heat
Guards
D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min
Forwards
G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min
Centers
B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min
Out
T. HardawayDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GSMIA
Scoring
117.7 #11Points per game118.3 #9
1.17 #3Points per possession1.11 #14
101.4 #25Pace (possessions)106.2 #5
Shooting
55.3 #8Effective FG%54.6 #12
40.0 #23-point %34.1 #19
47.1 #53-point attempt rate41.7 #20
28.8 #15Free throw rate27.3 #19
Possessions
16.7 #22Turnover rate14.1 #5
33.2 #1Offensive rebound rate24.5 #24
27.4 #10Assists per game28.8 #3
Defense
114.9 #16Points allowed121.5 #26
1.13 #21Points allowed per possession1.15 #26
56.0 #25Opponent effective FG%56.8 #27
35.2 #16Opponent 3-point %40.6 #29
17.6 #5Turnovers forced15.4 #18
70.4 #23Defensive rebound rate72.3 #17
9.1 #11Steals per game8.3 #19
4.1 #24Blocks per game5.0 #13
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Pacers145–125
  • W@ Hawks129–117
  • Lvs Mavericks109–113
  • L@ Hornets110–115
  • Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.