Kia Center · at Magic
LineNo line yet
Total—
 GS | This season | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-4 |
| 5-2 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 4-3 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects ORL 115–115 · win probability ORL 50%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 230.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: GS has more of the edges
GS 5, ORL 1 · 2026-27 so far
GSBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, ORL 68.9%
GSBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: GS 17.6%, ORL 13.6%
GSBigRecent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4
GSSmallORL offense vs GS defense
Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
GSSmallGS offense vs ORL defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less
ORLSmallHome court
ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, GS 2-2 away
Even
Three-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 47.1% and 46.5% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, ORL 31.7. Allowed: GS 27.3, ORL 29.8
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelGS -0.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model230.3
Model edge—
Projected score
GS 115.2 · ORL 115.1
Win probability
ORL 50%
1st half
Spread
GS -0.2
Total
115.3
Projected score
GS 57.7 · ORL 57.5
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GSlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% |
| ORLlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
GS 6–4 ORLGS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · GS 6-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025-26 | ORL 97 @ GS 120 | GS -6.5 | GS W |
| Nov 18, 2025-26 | GS 113 @ ORL 121 | ORL +2.5 | ORL W |
| Feb 27, 2024-25 | GS 121 @ ORL 115 | ORL +4.5 | GS W |
| Feb 3, 2024-25 | ORL 99 @ GS 104 | GS -3.5 | GS W |
| Mar 27, 2023-24 | GS 101 @ ORL 93 | ORL -3.5 | GS W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Warriors
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ LAL | L 105-127 | +6.5 | L −15.5 | 233.5 | U 232 |
| Oct 23 | vs MEM | L 108-111 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 236.5 | U 219 |
| Oct 24 | @ PHX | L 122-131 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 221.5 | O 253 |
| Oct 26 | @ DEN | W 134-114 | +6.5 | W +26.5 | 236.5 | O 248 |
| Oct 28 | @ MIN | W 119-114 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 227.5 | O 233 |
| Oct 30 | vsLAL | W 112-95 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 234.5 | U 207 |
| Nov 1 | vs LAC | W 124-112 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 220.5 | O 236 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−15.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−7.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+0.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+26.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+8.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
+19.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−1.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−17.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+31.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+11.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+5.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
−27.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+15.5
over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Magic
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
ATL
ATLL 125-132
−9.5
23
vsMIN
MINL 93-115
−23.5
25
@
NY
NYW 111-102
+15.5
28
@
TOR
TORL 99-129
−24.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+12.5
1
vs
BOS
BOSL 97-108
−4.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsATL
ATLL 125-132
+23.5
23
vsMIN
MINL 93-115
−26.5
25
@NY
NYW 111-102
−11.5
28
@TOR
TORL 99-129
+3.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+8.5
1
vsBOS
BOSL 97-108
−16.5
over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Warriors has the better starters
Position by position: Warriors 3, Magic 1, even 1
WarriorsBetterMagic
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 72
=Even
G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 62
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 62
←GSBig
G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
Score 3
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 5
→ORLBig
F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast
Score 90
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 78
←GSBig
F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 35
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 72
←GSBig
C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 28
WarriorsBetterMagic
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
←GSSmall
ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
←GSSmall
ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
←GSBig
Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
→ORLSmall
Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
←GSBig
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
WarriorsGuards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
MagicGuards
D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min
Forwards
F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min
Centers
W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min
Out
J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
GS117.7 #11ORL107.7 #26Points per possession
GS1.17 #3ORL1.07 #21Pace (possessions)
GS101.4 #25ORL101.9 #22Shooting
Effective FG%
GS55.3 #8ORL53.4 #153-point %
GS40.0 #2ORL35.4 #113-point attempt rate
GS47.1 #5ORL46.5 #6Free throw rate
GS28.8 #15ORL31.7 #9Possessions
Turnover rate
GS16.7 #22ORL17.0 #24Offensive rebound rate
GS33.2 #1ORL23.4 #26Assists per game
GS27.4 #10ORL26.3 #16Defense
Points allowed
GS114.9 #16ORL116.7 #22Points allowed per possession
GS1.13 #21ORL1.13 #24Opponent effective FG%
GS56.0 #25ORL53.0 #13Opponent 3-point %
GS35.2 #16ORL34.6 #13Turnovers forced
GS17.6 #5ORL13.6 #26Defensive rebound rate
GS70.4 #23ORL68.9 #26Steals per game
GS9.1 #11ORL7.0 #26Blocks per game
GS4.1 #24ORL4.2 #23| GS | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 117.7 #11 | Points per game | 107.7 #26 |
| 1.17 #3 | Points per possession | 1.07 #21 |
| 101.4 #25 | Pace (possessions) | 101.9 #22 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.3 #8 | Effective FG% | 53.4 #15 |
| 40.0 #2 | 3-point % | 35.4 #11 |
| 47.1 #5 | 3-point attempt rate | 46.5 #6 |
| 28.8 #15 | Free throw rate | 31.7 #9 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.7 #22 | Turnover rate | 17.0 #24 |
| 33.2 #1 | Offensive rebound rate | 23.4 #26 |
| 27.4 #10 | Assists per game | 26.3 #16 |
| Defense | ||
| 114.9 #16 | Points allowed | 116.7 #22 |
| 1.13 #21 | Points allowed per possession | 1.13 #24 |
| 56.0 #25 | Opponent effective FG% | 53.0 #13 |
| 35.2 #16 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.6 #13 |
| 17.6 #5 | Turnovers forced | 13.6 #26 |
| 70.4 #23 | Defensive rebound rate | 68.9 #26 |
| 9.1 #11 | Steals per game | 7.0 #26 |
| 4.1 #24 | Blocks per game | 4.2 #23 |
Warriors
4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Clippers124–112
- Wvs Lakers112–95
- W@ Timberwolves119–114
- W@ Nuggets134–114
- L@ Suns122–131
A week or more of rest.
Magic
2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Celtics97–108
- W@ Raptors121–114
- L@ Raptors99–129
- W@ Knicks111–102
- Lvs Timberwolves93–115
A week or more of rest.