Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 19, 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and 76ers
IND	This season	PHI
2-5	Record	6-1
3-4	ATS	4-3
3-4	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 117–108 · win probability PHI 73%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

IND 1, PHI 4 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

IND offense vs PHI defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: IND 14.9%, PHI 17.0%

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHISmall

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 43.1% and 39.5% of their shots

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, IND 2-2 away

INDSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, PHI 70.8%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, PHI 28.7. Allowed: IND 32.1, PHI 28.5

Even

PHI offense vs IND defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: IND away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 20	@ BOS	L104–119LU
Jan 22	@ DET	L121–133WO
Jan 26	vs CHI	W145–126WO

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 21	@ BOS	W109–100WO
Jan 23	@ CHI	W157–137WO
Jan 25	vs LAC	W128–113WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

IND 6–13 PHIPHI leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 5 meetings · IND 11-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 28, 2026-27	PHI 114 @ IND 109	IND +7.5	IND W
Apr 10, 2025-26	PHI 105 @ IND 94	IND +14.5	IND W
Feb 24, 2025-26	PHI 135 @ IND 114	IND +10.5	PHI W
Jan 19, 2025-26	IND 104 @ PHI 113	PHI -6.5	PHI W
Dec 12, 2025-26	IND 105 @ PHI 115	PHI -5.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 1, 76ers 2, even 2

PacersBetter76ers

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

Even

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

Even

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

PHISmall

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

INDSmall

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

PHIBig

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PacersBetter76ers

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

PHIBig

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

Even

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

PHIBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

PHI5.0 #14

IND		PHI
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.06 #22
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
34.1 #18	3-point %	34.0 #20
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
28.0 #7	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
6.9 #27	Steals per game	9.6 #7
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

76ers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

76ers