Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 17, 5:00 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz · Conference game

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Jazz
SAC	This season	UTAH
0-6	Record	1-5
1-5	ATS	1-5
5-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTAH 122–115 · win probability UTAH 67%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UTAH has more of the edges

SAC 1, UTAH 4 · 2026-27 so far

UTAHBig

UTAH offense vs SAC defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

UTAHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, UTAH 77.1%

SACSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, UTAH 13.3%

UTAHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 38.0% and 41.7% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: SAC 31.2, UTAH 33.8

Even

SAC offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: SAC away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 19	vs LAL	L104–128LU
Jan 20	vs MIL	L98–115LU
Jan 22	@ LAL	L104–128LU

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 19	@ DEN	L117–130WU
Jan 20	vs LAC	L103–115LU
Jan 22	@ PHX	L109–134LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

SAC 12–7 UTAHSAC leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · SAC 9-9-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 15, 2025-26	UTAH 111 @ SAC 116	SAC -3.5	SAC W
Feb 11, 2025-26	SAC 93 @ UTAH 121	UTAH -5.5	UTAH W
Nov 28, 2025-26	SAC 119 @ UTAH 128	UTAH -2.5	UTAH W
Oct 24, 2025-26	UTAH 104 @ SAC 105	SAC -6.5	UTAH W
Feb 26, 2024-25	SAC 118 @ UTAH 101	UTAH +9.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Kings 2, Jazz 2, even 1

KingsBetterJazz

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

Even

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

SACSmall

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

SACSmall

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

UTAHBig

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

UTAHSmall

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

KingsBetterJazz

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Even

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

UTAHSmall

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

SACBig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

UTAHBig

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

UTAH6.5 #5

SAC		UTAH
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	108.7 #24
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.05 #25
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
30.4 #27	3-point %	32.6 #23
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
24.5 #23	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
8.0 #21	Steals per game	6.2 #29
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Jazz

What could decide it: UTAH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Jazz

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Jazz