Paycom Center · at Thunder · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 POR | This season | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 3-3 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 1-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects OKC 112–111 · win probability OKC 51%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 222.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: POR has more of the edges
POR 5, OKC 3 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBigThree-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 51.5% and 35.8% of their shots
PORBigShooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0
PORBigFree throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, OKC 21.8. Allowed: POR 27.8, OKC 23.4
OKCSmallPOR offense vs OKC defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
PORSmallOKC offense vs POR defense
Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points
PORSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, OKC 71.4%
OKCSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: POR 14.8%, OKC 15.8%
OKCSmallHome court
OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, POR 3-0 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelOKC -0.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model222.7
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 111.2 · OKC 111.5
Win probability
OKC 51%
1st half
Spread
OKC -0.0
Total
111.7
Projected score
POR 55.9 · OKC 55.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PORlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
| OKClast 6 | 4-2 67% | 3-3 50% | 1-5 17% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22
POR 1–19 OKCOKC leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 3 meetings · POR 7-13 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025-26 | POR 95 @ OKC 124 | OKC -15.5 | OKC W |
| Nov 30, 2025-26 | OKC 123 @ POR 115 | POR +11.5 | POR W |
| Nov 23, 2025-26 | POR 95 @ OKC 122 | OKC -16.5 | OKC W |
| Nov 5, 2025-26 | OKC 119 @ POR 121 | POR +3.5 | POR W |
| Mar 7, 2024-25 | POR 89 @ OKC 107 | OKC -1.5 | OKC W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Trail Blazers
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
PHX
PHXW 124-83
+37.5
23
@
SAC
SACW 128-120
−1.5
27
@
LAL
LALW 136-129
+8.5
29
vs
MEM
MEML 103-124
−28.5
31
@
UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
+15.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsPHX
PHXW 124-83
−25.5
23
@SAC
SACW 128-120
+16.5
27
@LAL
LALW 136-129
+30.5
29
vsMEM
MEML 103-124
−6.5
31
@UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
−30.5
over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Thunder
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-5
17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
@
SA
SAW 116-104
+10.5
22
vs
DEN
DENW 96-84
+4.5
25
vs
LAC
LACW 108-101
−9.5
26
vsPHX
PHXW 125-114
+2.5
28
@
DAL
DALL 96-120
−28.5
31
@
HOU
HOUL 98-119
−18.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
@SA
SAW 116-104
−9.5
22
vsDEN
DENW 96-84
−56.5
25
vsLAC
LACW 108-101
−14.5
26
vsPHX
PHXW 125-114
+17.5
28
@DAL
DALL 96-120
−11.5
31
@HOU
HOUL 98-119
−2.5
over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Trail Blazers 1, Thunder 1, even 3
Trail BlazersBetterThunder
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 89
=Even
G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 88
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 34
→OKCBig
G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast
Score 99
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 82
←PORBig
G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 8
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 44
=Even
G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 40
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 74
=Even
C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast
Score 88
Trail BlazersBetterThunder
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
→OKCSmall
OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
←PORSmall
OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
→OKCBig
Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
←PORBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
←PORBig
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail BlazersGuards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
ThunderGuards
S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min
Forwards
J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min
Centers
I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min
Out
A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
POR120.6 #4OKC106.5 #29Points per possession
POR1.16 #5OKC1.05 #23Pace (possessions)
POR103.5 #14OKC101.1 #27Shooting
Effective FG%
POR56.2 #4OKC49.5 #283-point %
POR35.3 #12OKC30.9 #263-point attempt rate
POR51.5 #1OKC35.8 #29Free throw rate
POR35.9 #3OKC21.8 #28Possessions
Turnover rate
POR14.6 #9OKC14.5 #7Offensive rebound rate
POR27.6 #14OKC28.5 #10Assists per game
POR26.2 #17OKC21.7 #29Defense
Points allowed
POR109.2 #10OKC107.0 #5Points allowed per possession
POR1.06 #10OKC1.06 #7Opponent effective FG%
POR51.3 #8OKC51.0 #6Opponent 3-point %
POR32.1 #8OKC35.3 #17Turnovers forced
POR14.8 #20OKC15.8 #13Defensive rebound rate
POR77.3 #3OKC71.4 #18Steals per game
POR8.6 #18OKC8.3 #20Blocks per game
POR4.2 #21OKC6.3 #7| POR | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 120.6 #4 | Points per game | 106.5 #29 |
| 1.16 #5 | Points per possession | 1.05 #23 |
| 103.5 #14 | Pace (possessions) | 101.1 #27 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.2 #4 | Effective FG% | 49.5 #28 |
| 35.3 #12 | 3-point % | 30.9 #26 |
| 51.5 #1 | 3-point attempt rate | 35.8 #29 |
| 35.9 #3 | Free throw rate | 21.8 #28 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.6 #9 | Turnover rate | 14.5 #7 |
| 27.6 #14 | Offensive rebound rate | 28.5 #10 |
| 26.2 #17 | Assists per game | 21.7 #29 |
| Defense | ||
| 109.2 #10 | Points allowed | 107.0 #5 |
| 1.06 #10 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #7 |
| 51.3 #8 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.0 #6 |
| 32.1 #8 | Opponent 3-point % | 35.3 #17 |
| 14.8 #20 | Turnovers forced | 15.8 #13 |
| 77.3 #3 | Defensive rebound rate | 71.4 #18 |
| 8.6 #18 | Steals per game | 8.3 #20 |
| 4.2 #21 | Blocks per game | 6.3 #7 |
Trail Blazers
4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Jazz112–90
- Lvs Grizzlies103–124
- W@ Lakers136–129
- W@ Kings128–120
- Wvs Suns124–83
A week or more of rest.
Thunder
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Rockets98–119
- L@ Mavericks96–120
- Wvs Suns125–114
- Wvs Clippers108–101
- Wvs Nuggets96–84
A week or more of rest.