Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 17, 3:30 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Bulls
TOR	This season	CHI
3-3	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 123–112 · win probability TOR 78%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

TOR 5, CHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, CHI 14.7%

TORBig

TOR offense vs CHI defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

CHIBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, CHI 38.3. Allowed: TOR 41.5, CHI 33.5

TORBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, CHI 69.8%

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

TORSmall

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 38.1% and 47.9% of their shots

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 108 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

Even

CHI offense vs TOR defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: TOR away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 19	vs CHI	W135–92WU
Jan 20	@ NY	L95–112LU
Jan 23	@ BKN	W136–101WO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 19	@ TOR	L92–135LU
Jan 20	@ BKN	L115–123LO
Jan 23	vs PHI	L137–157LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

TOR 9–11 CHICHI leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 4 meetings · TOR 11-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 21, 2026-27	CHI 92 @ TOR 135	TOR -10.5	TOR W
Mar 18, 2025-26	TOR 139 @ CHI 109	CHI +7.5	TOR W
Feb 19, 2025-26	TOR 110 @ CHI 101	CHI +6.5	TOR W
Feb 5, 2025-26	CHI 107 @ TOR 123	TOR -7.5	TOR W
Apr 1, 2024-25	TOR 118 @ CHI 137	CHI -4.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 4, Bulls 1, even 0

RaptorsBetterBulls

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

CHIBig

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

TORBig

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

TORBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

TORBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

TORSmall

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

RaptorsBetterBulls

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

TORBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

Even

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

CHI5.0 #12

TOR		CHI
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.04 #26
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
32.0 #24	3-point %	28.1 #30
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
29.2 #2	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
12.7 #2	Steals per game	8.7 #17
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Bulls

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Bulls

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Bulls