Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 20, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Kings
MIL	This season	SAC
1-5	Record	0-6
2-4	ATS	1-5
5-1	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIL 118–118 · win probability MIL 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 236.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIL has more of the edges

MIL 3, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, SAC 73.7%

MILBig

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 45.9% and 38.0% of their shots

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, MIL 0-2 away

MILSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, SAC 14.6%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Even

MIL offense vs SAC defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Even

SAC offense vs MIL defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, SAC 26.4. Allowed: MIL 29.7, SAC 31.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MIL away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 22	@ GS	L113–120LO
Jan 23	@ DEN	L100–102LU
Jan 26	@ UTAH	L96–128LU

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 22	@ LAL	L104–128LU
Jan 25	@ DEN	L105–136LO
Jan 27	@ PHI	L118–139LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIL 8–2 SACMIL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIL 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 4, 2025-26	MIL 115 @ SAC 98	SAC +6.5	MIL W
Nov 1, 2025-26	SAC 135 @ MIL 133	MIL -6.5	SAC W
Mar 22, 2024-25	MIL 114 @ SAC 108	SAC -1.5	MIL W
Jan 14, 2024-25	SAC 115 @ MIL 130	MIL -2.5	MIL W
Mar 12, 2023-24	MIL 94 @ SAC 129	SAC -1.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bucks has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 2, Kings 1, even 2

BucksBetterKings

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

Even

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

SACSmall

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

Even

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

MILSmall

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

MILBig

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

BucksBetterKings

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Even

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

Even

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

SACBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

MILBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

SAC2.3 #30

MIL		SAC
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.03 #28
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
33.9 #21	3-point %	30.4 #27
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
26.0 #20	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
5.7 #30	Steals per game	8.0 #21
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Kings

What could decide it: MIL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Kings

Bucks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Kings