Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 19, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Kings
LAL	This season	SAC
5-2	Record	0-6
4-3	ATS	1-5
4-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 125–113 · win probability LAL 80%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

LAL 7, SAC 2 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs SAC defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

LALBig

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 45.7% and 38.0% of their shots

LALBig

SAC offense vs LAL defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, SAC 26.4. Allowed: LAL 30.7, SAC 31.2

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALSmall

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

LALSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, SAC 14.6%

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, LAL 2-1 away

SACSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, SAC 73.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: LAL away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 21	@ GS	L95–112LU
Jan 22	vs SAC	W128–104WU
Jan 24	vs WSH	W120–101WU

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 20	vs MIL	L98–115LU
Jan 22	@ LAL	L104–128LU
Jan 25	@ DEN	L105–136LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

LAL 10–10 SACSeries tied · 20 games since 2021-22 · LAL 10-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 1, 2025-26	SAC 104 @ LAL 128	LAL -12.5	LAL W
Jan 12, 2025-26	LAL 112 @ SAC 124	SAC +9.5	SAC W
Dec 28, 2025-26	SAC 101 @ LAL 125	LAL -12.5	LAL W
Oct 26, 2025-26	LAL 127 @ SAC 120	SAC -2.5	LAL W
Dec 28, 2024-25	SAC 122 @ LAL 132	LAL +3.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 4, Kings 0, even 1

LakersBetterKings

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

LALBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

LALBig

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

Even

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

LALBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

LALSmall

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

LakersBetterKings

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALBig

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

LALSmall

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

LALBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

SAC2.3 #30

LAL		SAC
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.03 #28
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
38.9 #4	3-point %	30.4 #27
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
23.4 #27	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
10.4 #4	Steals per game	8.0 #21
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Kings

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Kings

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Kings