LA Clippers at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 20, 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz · Conference game

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Jazz
LAC	This season	UTAH
1-5	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 116–113 · win probability LAC 61%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

LAC 4, UTAH 2 · 2026-27 so far

LACSmall

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 42.3% and 41.7% of their shots

LACSmall

UTAH offense vs LAC defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

LACSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: LAC 24.7, UTAH 33.8

UTAHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, UTAH 77.1%

LACSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, UTAH 13.3%

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

Even

LAC offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: LAC away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 22	vs WSH	W110–106LU
Jan 24	@ NY	W126–118WO
Jan 25	@ PHI	L113–128LO

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 22	@ PHX	L109–134LO
Jan 24	@ PHX	L109–134LO
Jan 26	vs MIL	W128–96WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

LAC 10–8 UTAHLAC leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 2 meetings · LAC 9-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 27, 2025-26	LAC 115 @ UTAH 103	UTAH +8.5	LAC W
Jan 1, 2025-26	UTAH 101 @ LAC 118	LAC -13.5	LAC W
Oct 22, 2025-26	LAC 108 @ UTAH 129	UTAH +10.5	UTAH W
Feb 13, 2024-25	LAC 120 @ UTAH 116	UTAH +9.5	UTAH W
Feb 8, 2024-25	UTAH 110 @ LAC 130	LAC -17.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Clippers 1, Jazz 1, even 3

ClippersBetterJazz

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

LACSmall

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

Even

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

Even

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

Even

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

UTAHSmall

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

ClippersBetterJazz

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Even

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

LACSmall

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

LACBig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

UTAHBig

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

LACSmall

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

UTAH6.5 #5

LAC		UTAH
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	108.7 #24
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.05 #25
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
38.6 #5	3-point %	32.6 #23
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
24.3 #26	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
11.3 #3	Steals per game	6.2 #29
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Jazz

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Jazz

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Jazz