Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 17, 9:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Lakers
MIL	This season	LAL
1-5	Record	5-2
2-4	ATS	4-3
5-1	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 125–111 · win probability LAL 84%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

MIL 1, LAL 7 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs MIL defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, LAL 67.4%

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

LALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, LAL 37.2. Allowed: MIL 29.7, LAL 30.7

LALBig

MIL offense vs LAL defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, LAL 17.8%

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

LALSmall

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 45.9% and 45.7% of their shots

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MIL away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 20	@ SAC	W115–98WU
Jan 22	@ GS	L113–120LO
Jan 23	@ DEN	L100–102LU

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 19	@ SAC	W128–104WU
Jan 21	@ GS	L95–112LU
Jan 22	vs SAC	W128–104WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIL 6–4 LALMIL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIL 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 9, 2025-26	MIL 105 @ LAL 101	LAL -3.5	MIL W
Nov 15, 2025-26	LAL 119 @ MIL 95	MIL -1.5	LAL W
Mar 20, 2024-25	MIL 118 @ LAL 89	LAL +8.5	MIL W
Mar 13, 2024-25	LAL 106 @ MIL 126	MIL -6.5	MIL W
Mar 26, 2023-24	LAL 128 @ MIL 124	MIL -9.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 0, Lakers 3, even 2

BucksBetterLakers

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

LALBig

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

LALBig

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

Even

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

LALBig

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

Even

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

BucksBetterLakers

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

LALSmall

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

LALBig

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

LALSmall

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

LAL6.7 #3

MIL		LAL
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.18 #2
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
33.9 #21	3-point %	38.9 #4
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
26.0 #20	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
5.7 #30	Steals per game	10.4 #4
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Lakers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Lakers