Chicago Bulls at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 12, 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Jazz
CHI	This season	UTAH
1-5	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	1-5
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTAH 123–118 · win probability UTAH 63%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 241.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

CHI 4, UTAH 4 · 2026-27 so far

CHIBig

CHI offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

UTAHBig

UTAH offense vs CHI defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UTAHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

CHISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, UTAH 13.3%

CHISmall

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

CHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: CHI 33.5, UTAH 33.8

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

UTAHSmall

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 47.9% and 41.7% of their shots

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, UTAH 77.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: CHI away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 14	vs MIN	W120–115WU
Jan 17	vs TOR	L92–135LU
Jan 19	@ TOR	L92–135LU

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 14	vs CHA	L95–150LO
Jan 15	@ OKC	L111–146LO
Jan 17	vs SAC	L111–116LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHI 7–3 UTAHCHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHI 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 14, 2025-26	UTAH 126 @ CHI 128	CHI -5.5	UTAH W
Nov 16, 2025-26	CHI 147 @ UTAH 150	UTAH +4.5	UTAH W
Mar 17, 2024-25	CHI 111 @ UTAH 97	UTAH +4.5	CHI W
Nov 4, 2024-25	UTAH 135 @ CHI 126	CHI +7.5	UTAH W
Mar 6, 2023-24	CHI 119 @ UTAH 117	UTAH +4.5	UTAH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Bulls 2, Jazz 2, even 1

BullsBetterJazz

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

CHIBig

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

CHISmall

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

Even

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

UTAHBig

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

UTAHSmall

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

BullsBetterJazz

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

CHIBig

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

UTAHSmall

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

UTAHBig

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

UTAH6.5 #5

CHI		UTAH
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	108.7 #24
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.05 #25
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
28.1 #30	3-point %	32.6 #23
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
24.3 #25	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
8.7 #17	Steals per game	6.2 #29
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Jazz

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Jazz

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Jazz