Charlotte Hornets at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 14, 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Jazz
CHA	This season	UTAH
3-4	Record	1-5
3-4	ATS	1-5
1-6	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 112–110 · win probability CHA 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CHA has more of the edges

CHA 2, UTAH 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHABig

UTAH offense vs CHA defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

CHASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, UTAH 77.1%

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

Even

CHA offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: CHA 28.4, UTAH 33.8

Even

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 50.8% and 41.7% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, UTAH 13.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: CHA away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 16	@ DEN	W110–87WU
Jan 19	@ DAL	W117–90WU
Jan 22	vs HOU	L101–105WU

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 15	@ OKC	L111–146LO
Jan 17	vs SAC	L111–116LU
Jan 19	@ DEN	L117–130WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHA 6–4 UTAHCHA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 5 meetings · CHA 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 10, 2025-26	CHA 150 @ UTAH 95	UTAH +6.5	CHA W
Nov 2, 2025-26	UTAH 103 @ CHA 126	CHA +1.5	CHA W
Mar 31, 2024-25	UTAH 106 @ CHA 110	CHA -4.5	UTAH W
Jan 15, 2024-25	CHA 117 @ UTAH 112	UTAH +5.5	UTAH W
Feb 22, 2023-24	CHA 115 @ UTAH 107	UTAH -9.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Hornets 2, Jazz 2, even 1

HornetsBetterJazz

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

Even

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CHABig

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

CHABig

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

UTAHSmall

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

UTAHSmall

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

HornetsBetterJazz

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Even

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHABig

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

CHABig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

UTAHBig

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

UTAH6.5 #5

CHA		UTAH
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	108.7 #24
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.05 #25
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
29.6 #28	3-point %	32.6 #23
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
21.6 #30	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
7.1 #25	Steals per game	6.2 #29
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Jazz

What could decide it: CHA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Jazz

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Jazz