Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 14, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Lakers
ORL	This season	LAL
2-4	Record	5-2
2-4	ATS	4-3
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 119–113 · win probability LAL 68%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

ORL 0, LAL 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALBig

LAL offense vs ORL defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, LAL 17.8%

LALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, ORL 2-1 away

LALSmall

ORL offense vs LAL defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, LAL 37.2. Allowed: ORL 29.8, LAL 30.7

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, LAL 67.4%

Even

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 46.5% and 45.7% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: ORL away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 15	@ LAC	W111–109WO
Jan 17	@ DEN	W127–126WO
Jan 19	vs GS	L97–120LU

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 17	vs MIL	L101–105LU
Jan 19	@ SAC	W128–104WU
Jan 21	@ GS	L95–112LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ORL 4–6 LALLAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 21, 2025-26	LAL 105 @ ORL 104	ORL +2.5	ORL W
Feb 24, 2025-26	ORL 110 @ LAL 109	LAL -6.5	ORL W
Mar 24, 2024-25	LAL 106 @ ORL 118	ORL +4.5	ORL W
Nov 21, 2024-25	ORL 119 @ LAL 118	LAL -5.5	ORL W
Nov 4, 2023-24	LAL 101 @ ORL 120	ORL +3.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 1, Lakers 3, even 1

MagicBetterLakers

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

LALSmall

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

LALBig

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

ORLBig

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

LALBig

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

Even

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

MagicBetterLakers

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Even

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

LALBig

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

LAL6.7 #3

ORL		LAL
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.18 #2
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
35.4 #11	3-point %	38.9 #4
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
26.3 #16	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
7.0 #26	Steals per game	10.4 #4
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Lakers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Lakers