Magic @ Clippers: Odds, Model Line & ATS Trends (Fri, Jan 15, NBA)

Fri, Jan 15, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Clippers
ORL	This season	LAC
2-5	Record	1-6
2-5	ATS	3-4
3-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 113–110 · win probability LAC 58%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 219-233 in 2025-26. Model numbers

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

ORL 2, LAC 4 · 2026-27 so far

LACBig

ORL offense vs LAC defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

ORLSmall

LAC offense vs ORL defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

LACSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.3%, LAC 19.5%. Forced: ORL 14.1%, LAC 16.4%

ORLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.3 and allows 53.8; LAC 53.0 and allows 56.9

LACSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 22.9%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: ORL 70.2%, LAC 70.5%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: ORL plays 100.8 a game (26th fastest), LAC 102.3 (17th). Faster games mean more points

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-2 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -6.8; LAC 1-4 ATS, margin -13.6

Even

Three-pointers

ORL hits 34.3% and allows 34.9%; LAC hits 38.4% and allows 36.9%. Threes are 46.9% and 41.7% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 29.0, LAC 28.3. Allowed: ORL 29.1, LAC 29.2

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, LAC the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL WLWLL	2-5	29%	2-1	—
LAC WLLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: ORL away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UOOUU	3-4	43%	2-5
LAC UUOOO	4-3	57%	1-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 7	2-5 29%	2-5 29%	3-4 43%
LAClast 7	1-6 14%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 17	@ DEN	W127–126WO
Jan 19	vs GS	L97–120LU
Jan 22	vs POR	W110–106WU

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 18	vs PHX	W117–93WO
Jan 20	@ UTAH	W115–103WU
Jan 22	vs WSH	W110–106LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ORL 4–6 LACLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 2 meetings · ORL 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2025-26	ORL 111 @ LAC 109	LAC -4.5	ORL W
Nov 20, 2025-26	LAC 101 @ ORL 129	ORL -6.5	ORL W
Mar 31, 2024-25	LAC 96 @ ORL 87	ORL +3.5	LAC W
Nov 20, 2024-25	ORL 93 @ LAC 104	LAC +2.5	LAC W
Mar 29, 2023-24	LAC 100 @ ORL 97	ORL +1.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

L L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205
Nov 2	vsWSH	L 94-103	-2.5	L −11.5	224.5	U 197

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

WSH

L 94-103

−11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

WSH

L 94-103

−27.5

over 3under 4avg −6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236
Nov 2	vsTOR	L 118-125	+6.5	L −0.5	220.5	O 243

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

TOR

L 118-125

−0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

TOR

L 118-125

+22.5

over 4under 3avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Magic 2, Clippers 2, even 1

MagicBetterClippers

G D. Bane17.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 63

ORLBig

G D. Garland20.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 6.6 ast Score 28

G J. Richardson5.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 1

LACSmall

G K. Dunn9 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.7 ast Score 24

F F. Wagner20.3 pts · 6.1 reb · 7.6 ast Score 89

ORLBig

G K. Sanders11 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 32

F J. Cain6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Score 10

Even

F I. Jackson9.6 pts · 6.4 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

C W. Carter12.4 pts · 8.9 reb · 1 ast Score 25

LACBig

C B. Lopez12.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 1 ast Score 96

MagicBetterClippers

ORL offense25th of 30 · -2.8

LACBig

LAC defense12th of 30 · +0.8

ORL defense14th of 30 · +0.2

ORLSmall

LAC offense23rd of 30 · -2.6

Backcourt-4.4 · 2 players

ORLSmall

Backcourt-6.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+9.5 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+6.1 · 2 players

Bench+0.2 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-5.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson21 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales9 min

Forwards

F. Wagner36 minJ. Cain16 minT. da Silva29 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minN. Vucevic10 minG. Bitadze9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackDay-To-Day

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders25 minK. Wagler25 minM. Strus25 minG. Dick16 min

Forwards

I. Jackson22 minB. Miller9 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-DayR. HachimuraDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

ORL

LAC

Scoring

105.7Points per game108.1

1.06Points per possession1.05

100.8Pace (possessions)102.3

Shooting

53.3Effective FG%53.0

34.33-point %38.4

46.93-point attempt rate41.7

29.0Free throw rate28.3

Possessions

17.3Turnover rate19.5

22.9Offensive rebound rate26.5

25.9Assists per game25.0

Defense

114.7Points allowed115.4

1.13Points allowed per possession1.14

53.8Opponent effective FG%56.9

34.9Opponent 3-point %36.9

14.1Turnovers forced16.4

70.2Defensive rebound rate70.5

6.9Steals per game10.6

3.7Blocks per game4.1

ORL		LAC
Scoring
105.7 #28	Points per game	108.1 #24
1.06 #24	Points per possession	1.05 #26
100.8 #26	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #17
Shooting
53.3 #16	Effective FG%	53.0 #19
34.3 #18	3-point %	38.4 #5
46.9 #6	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
29.0 #15	Free throw rate	28.3 #18
Possessions
17.3 #26	Turnover rate	19.5 #29
22.9 #27	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #18
25.9 #19	Assists per game	25.0 #23
Defense
114.7 #18	Points allowed	115.4 #20
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
53.8 #17	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #27
34.9 #13	Opponent 3-point %	36.9 #21
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	16.4 #8
70.2 #23	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
6.9 #27	Steals per game	10.6 #4
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	4.1 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-5 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Wizards94–103
Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-6 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Raptors118–125
L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Clippers

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Clippers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Clippers