Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 18, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Clippers
PHX	This season	LAC
1-3	Record	1-5
0-4	ATS	3-3
3-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 115–111 · win probability LAC 61%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

PHX 2, LAC 5 · 2026-27 so far

LACBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, LAC 28.0. Allowed: PHX 31.1, LAC 24.7

PHXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, LAC 17.0%

LACSmall

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 45.1% and 42.3% of their shots

PHXSmall

LAC offense vs PHX defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LACSmall

PHX offense vs LAC defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

LACSmall

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, PHX 0-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, LAC 70.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: PHX away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 20	vs MEM	W131–105WO
Jan 22	vs UTAH	W134–109WO
Jan 24	vs UTAH	W134–109WO

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 20	@ UTAH	W115–103WU
Jan 22	vs WSH	W110–106LU
Jan 24	@ NY	W126–118WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

PHX 15–10 LACPHX leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · PHX 13-12 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 1, 2025-26	LAC 117 @ PHX 93	PHX -2.5	LAC W
Nov 8, 2025-26	PHX 114 @ LAC 103	LAC -4.5	PHX W
Nov 6, 2025-26	LAC 102 @ PHX 115	PHX -2.5	PHX W
Oct 24, 2025-26	PHX 102 @ LAC 129	LAC -10.5	LAC W
Mar 4, 2024-25	LAC 117 @ PHX 119	PHX +2.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Clippers has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 1, Clippers 2, even 2

SunsBetterClippers

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXBig

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

Even

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

LACSmall

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

LACSmall

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

Even

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

SunsBetterClippers

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

LACSmall

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

PHXSmall

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

LACBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

LACSmall

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

LAC4.2 #22

PHX		LAC
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.04 #27
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
35.0 #16	3-point %	38.6 #5
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
27.5 #8	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
9.0 #15	Steals per game	11.3 #3
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Clippers

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Clippers

Clippers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Clippers