Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 15, 10:00 PM ETModa Center · at Trail Blazers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Trail Blazers
SAC	This season	POR
0-6	Record	4-1
1-5	ATS	3-2
5-1	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 126–107 · win probability POR 90%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

SAC 0, POR 9 · 2026-27 so far

PORBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3

PORBig

POR offense vs SAC defense

Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PORBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 38.0% and 51.5% of their shots

PORBig

SAC offense vs POR defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

PORBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, POR 35.9. Allowed: SAC 31.2, POR 27.8

PORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, POR 77.3%

PORSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, POR 14.6%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, POR 14.8%

PORSmall

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4

PORSmall

Home court

POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
POR WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	—

Venue/role: SAC away; POR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
POR UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
PORlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 17	@ UTAH	W116–111WU
Jan 19	vs LAL	L104–128LU
Jan 20	vs MIL	L98–115LU

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 17	@ OKC	L95–124LU
Jan 19	@ MIA	W127–110WO
Jan 20	@ ATL	L101–135LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

SAC 9–10 PORPOR leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · POR has won the last 5 meetings · SAC 11-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 23, 2026-27	POR 128 @ SAC 120	SAC +9.5	SAC W
Apr 12, 2025-26	SAC 110 @ POR 122	POR -18.5	SAC W
Jan 18, 2025-26	POR 117 @ SAC 110	SAC +1.5	POR W
Dec 20, 2025-26	POR 98 @ SAC 93	SAC +4.5	POR W
Dec 18, 2025-26	SAC 133 @ POR 134	POR -8.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Trail Blazers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Trail Blazers 4, even 1

KingsBetterTrail Blazers

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

PORBig

G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

Even

G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

PORBig

F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

PORBig

F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

PORBig

C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74

KingsBetterTrail Blazers

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

PORBig

POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

PORBig

POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

PORBig

Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

PORBig

Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

PORBig

Bench+15.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

POR120.6 #4

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

POR1.16 #5

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

POR103.5 #14

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

POR56.2 #4

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

POR35.3 #12

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

POR51.5 #1

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

POR35.9 #3

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

POR14.6 #9

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

POR27.6 #14

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

POR26.2 #17

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

POR109.2 #10

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

POR1.06 #10

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

POR51.3 #8

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

POR32.1 #8

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

POR14.8 #20

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

POR77.3 #3

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

POR8.6 #18

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

POR4.2 #21

SAC		POR
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	120.6 #4
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.16 #5
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	103.5 #14
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	56.2 #4
30.4 #27	3-point %	35.3 #12
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	51.5 #1
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	35.9 #3
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	14.6 #9
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	27.6 #14
24.5 #23	Assists per game	26.2 #17
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	109.2 #10
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #10
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #8
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #8
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	14.8 #20
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	77.3 #3
8.0 #21	Steals per game	8.6 #18
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	4.2 #21

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120
Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Trail Blazers

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Trail Blazers

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Trail Blazers