Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 15, 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Rockets
WSH	This season	HOU
3-3	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	6-1
1-5	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 121–106 · win probability HOU 86%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

WSH 1, HOU 7 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

WSH offense vs HOU defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, HOU 73.2%

HOUBig

HOU offense vs WSH defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUBig

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 37.6% and 38.1% of their shots

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, WSH 1-2 away

WSHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, HOU 31.9. Allowed: WSH 21.8, HOU 24.7

HOUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, HOU 15.7%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: WSH away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 17	vs IND	W131–118WO
Jan 18	vs BOS	L100–111WU
Jan 21	@ DEN	L97–107LU

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 16	vs DET	W111–104WU
Jan 18	@ MEM	W132–101WO
Jan 20	@ MIN	L132–136LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

WSH 1–9 HOUHOU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 7 meetings · WSH 2-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 2, 2025-26	HOU 123 @ WSH 118	WSH +14.5	WSH W
Nov 12, 2025-26	WSH 112 @ HOU 135	HOU -17.5	HOU W
Jan 7, 2024-25	HOU 135 @ WSH 112	WSH +13.5	HOU W
Nov 11, 2024-25	WSH 92 @ HOU 107	HOU -12.5	HOU W
Mar 19, 2023-24	HOU 137 @ WSH 114	WSH +10.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 0, Rockets 3, even 2

WizardsBetterRockets

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

HOUBig

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

HOUBig

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

Even

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

HOUBig

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

WizardsBetterRockets

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

HOUBig

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

HOUBig

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

HOU5.9 #8

WSH		HOU
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.20 #1
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
29.3 #29	3-point %	39.0 #3
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
24.5 #24	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
7.2 #24	Steals per game	9.7 #6
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Rockets