Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 14, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and Nuggets
MEM	This season	DEN
6-0	Record	3-2
6-0	ATS	2-3
2-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 120–115 · win probability DEN 65%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 5, DEN 3 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, DEN 31.3. Allowed: MEM 31.4, DEN 21.5

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, DEN 70.5%

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 42.1% and 40.9% of their shots

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

MEMSmall

MEM offense vs DEN defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

DEN offense vs MEM defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, MEM 4-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, DEN 15.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: MEM away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 16	vs CLE	L126–142LO
Jan 18	vs HOU	L101–132LO
Jan 20	@ PHX	L105–131LO

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 16	vs CHA	L87–110LU
Jan 17	vs ORL	L126–127LO
Jan 19	vs UTAH	W130–117LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

MEM 6–12 DENDEN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · MEM 9-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 8, 2025-26	MEM 119 @ DEN 136	DEN -23.5	MEM W
Mar 18, 2025-26	DEN 118 @ MEM 125	MEM +12.5	MEM W
Feb 11, 2025-26	MEM 116 @ DEN 122	DEN -14.5	MEM W
Nov 24, 2025-26	DEN 125 @ MEM 115	MEM +8.5	DEN W
Apr 11, 2024-25	MEM 109 @ DEN 117	DEN -7.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 2, Nuggets 1, even 2

GrizzliesBetterNuggets

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

MEMBig

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

MEMSmall

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

DENBig

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

Even

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

Even

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

GrizzliesBetterNuggets

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

MEMSmall

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

DENSmall

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

MEMBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

DEN4.4 #18

MEM		DEN
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.16 #4	Points per possession	1.13 #9
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
41.7 #1	3-point %	37.4 #7
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
27.0 #13	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
6.3 #28	Steals per game	10.2 #5
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ Nuggets

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

Nuggets

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

Nuggets