Minnesota Timberwolves at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 14, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Bulls
MIN	This season	CHI
4-3	Record	1-5
6-1	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 127–111 · win probability MIN 86%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 238.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 6, CHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs CHI defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 42.8% and 47.9% of their shots

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, CHI 69.8%

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, CHI 14.7%

CHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, CHI 38.3. Allowed: MIN 28.9, CHI 33.5

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, MIN 2-2 away

MINSmall

CHI offense vs MIN defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 108 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MIN away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 16	@ PHI	L103–115LU
Jan 18	@ NY	W115–104WU
Jan 20	vs HOU	W136–132WO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 17	vs TOR	L92–135LU
Jan 19	@ TOR	L92–135LU
Jan 20	@ BKN	L115–123LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIN 4–6 CHICHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIN 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 22, 2025-26	CHI 120 @ MIN 115	MIN -9.5	CHI W
Dec 29, 2025-26	MIN 136 @ CHI 101	CHI +6.5	MIN W
Feb 5, 2024-25	CHI 108 @ MIN 127	MIN -10.5	MIN W
Nov 7, 2024-25	MIN 135 @ CHI 119	CHI +9.5	MIN W
Mar 31, 2023-24	CHI 109 @ MIN 101	MIN -8.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 4, Bulls 1, even 0

TimberwolvesBetterBulls

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

CHISmall

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINBig

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

MINBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MINBig

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

TimberwolvesBetterBulls

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

Even

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

CHI5.0 #12

MIN		CHI
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.04 #26
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
37.6 #6	3-point %	28.1 #30
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
27.3 #11	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
9.0 #13	Steals per game	8.7 #17
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Bulls

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Bulls

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Bulls