Minnesota Timberwolves at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 16, 12:30 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and 76ers
MIN	This season	PHI
4-3	Record	6-1
6-1	ATS	4-3
4-3	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 115–109 · win probability MIN 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 6, PHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, PHI 70.8%

MINBig

PHI offense vs MIN defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, PHI 17.0%

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

MINSmall

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 42.8% and 39.5% of their shots

MINSmall

MIN offense vs PHI defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, PHI 28.7. Allowed: MIN 28.9, PHI 28.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MIN away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 18	@ NY	W115–104WU
Jan 20	vs HOU	W136–132WO
Jan 22	@ SA	L111–121WO

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 18	@ ATL	L116–125LO
Jan 19	vs IND	W114–109LU
Jan 21	@ BOS	W109–100WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIN 5–5 PHISeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 2 meetings · MIN 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 3, 2025-26	MIN 103 @ PHI 115	PHI -3.5	PHI W
Feb 22, 2025-26	PHI 135 @ MIN 108	MIN -9.5	PHI W
Apr 5, 2024-25	MIN 114 @ PHI 109	PHI +16.5	PHI W
Mar 4, 2024-25	PHI 112 @ MIN 126	MIN -13.5	MIN W
Dec 20, 2023-24	MIN 113 @ PHI 127	PHI -4.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 2, 76ers 1, even 2

TimberwolvesBetter76ers

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

PHISmall

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINBig

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

Even

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

MINBig

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

Even

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

TimberwolvesBetter76ers

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINSmall

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MINBig

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

PHI5.0 #14

MIN		PHI
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.06 #22
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
37.6 #6	3-point %	34.0 #20
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
27.3 #11	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
9.0 #13	Steals per game	9.6 #7
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ 76ers

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

76ers

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

76ers