Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 16, 7:00 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Celtics
BKN	This season	BOS
1-5	Record	5-1
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 119–101 · win probability BOS 90%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BKN 1, BOS 6 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

BKN offense vs BOS defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, BOS 17.8%

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, BOS 68.4%

BOSSmall

BOS offense vs BKN defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSSmall

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 48.0% and 45.9% of their shots

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, BKN 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, BOS 32.3. Allowed: BKN 33.5, BOS 31.7

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: BKN away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 20	vs CHI	W123–115WO
Jan 21	vs CLE	L121–125WO
Jan 23	vs TOR	L101–136LO

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 18	@ WSH	W111–100LU
Jan 20	vs IND	W119–104WU
Jan 21	vs PHI	L100–109LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

BKN 3–22 BOSBOS leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 3 meetings · BKN 9-15-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 27, 2026-27	BKN 124 @ BOS 125	BOS -13.5	BKN W
Feb 27, 2025-26	BKN 111 @ BOS 148	BOS -16.5	BOS W
Jan 23, 2025-26	BOS 130 @ BKN 126	BKN +8.5	BKN W
Nov 21, 2025-26	BKN 113 @ BOS 105	BOS -13.5	BKN W
Nov 18, 2025-26	BOS 113 @ BKN 99	BKN +11.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 1, Celtics 4, even 0

NetsBetterCeltics

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

BOSBig

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

BOSBig

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

BOSBig

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

BKNSmall

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

BOSBig

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

NetsBetterCeltics

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

BOSBig

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

BOSSmall

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

BOS4.0 #25

BKN		BOS
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.15 #6
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
35.1 #15	3-point %	35.5 #10
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
22.8 #28	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
9.0 #14	Steals per game	9.2 #9
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Celtics